Africa Economics Weekly New forecasts for Africa amidst the Iran war As the conflict in the Middle East rumbles on, we’ve adjusted our key macroeconomic forecasts for Sub-Saharan Africa. There are a few countries that stand to benefit from the sharp rise in global... 20th March 2026 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: energy shock adds to currency, sovereign risks Kenya’s reliance on energy imports from Gulf States leaves it amongst the most vulnerable on the continent to the conflict in the Middle East. The fragile external position leaves the onus on the... 18th March 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Easing sovereign debt risks bolster the region’s resilience The shock from the conflict in the Middle East has only had a modest impact on government borrowing costs in Africa, reflecting a marked improvement in sovereign risk profiles in the last few years... 10th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa GDP (Q4 2025) South Africa’s economy expanded by 0.4% q/q in the final quarter, a modest pick-up from the revised 0.3% q/q growth recorded in Q3, helped by stronger consumer spending. While the conflict in the... 10th March 2026 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly How will the Middle East conflict affect Africa The jump in global energy prices on the back of the conflict in the Middle East, if sustained, will provide a windfall for Africa’s key oil producers, such as Nigeria and Angola. We suspect most of... 6th March 2026 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Could higher energy prices trigger an EM crisis? The energy price shock caused by the conflict in the Middle East will worsen current account positions in net energy-importing EMs. But unlike recent energy shocks, the external balance sheets of most... 4th March 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa Budget, Kenya’s monetary easing cycle South Africa's government opted – as we expected - to use its 2026 Budget to give away its recent revenue windfall. That it was able to do so reflects the remarkable turnaround in the public finances... 27th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update The naira’s rally is probably over The Nigerian naira has been one of the strongest performing EM currencies since the start of the year, helped by an improved balance of payments position. But the naira’s rally is starting to hurt... 26th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM budget deficits on diverging paths Fiscal tightening has helped to narrow budget deficits markedly in a number of EMs, notably Argentina, South Africa and Turkey. But elsewhere adjustment has been limited – particularly in Brazil. And... 25th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa gives away revenue windfall once again South Africa’s finance minister used today’s Budget speech to once again offer more fiscal giveaways, mainly in the form of putting off previously mooted tax rises, rather than save the revenue... 25th February 2026 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update How a fiscal rule would help South Africa There’s growing talk that South Africa’s government could introduce a fiscal rule at this week’s Budget. If so, this would strengthen fiscal credibility and help to lock-in the recent falls in local... 23rd February 2026 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly What to expect from South Africa's 2026 Budget? South Africa’s Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will present the 2026 Budget next week against an improving fiscal backdrop, creating scope for another fiscal giveaway. However, a looser fiscal... 20th February 2026 · 6 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook US and Asia to lead the AI decade Global growth will slow in the long run as population growth weakens and the scope for emerging market catch-up narrows, but there will be bright spots. We are increasingly confident that advances in... 18th February 2026 · 1 hr, 9 mins read
Africa Economics Update Will Africa continue to shrug off surging Chinese Imports Chinese exports to Africa surged last year and we expect Africa’s trade deficit with China to persist presenting risks to domestic industrialisation ambitions. However, China has levers that it can... 17th February 2026 · 5 mins read
