This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. Too little too late for both retailers and the Chancellor November’s retail sales and public finances data reveal some tentative signs of improvement, but both are coming too …
19th December 2025
Our India Economic Outlook for Q1 2026 and accompanying dashboard contain all of our latest analysis and forecasts for India’s economy and financial markets. In our final Weekly of 2025, we highlight three important events for India economy-watchers …
BoJ hikes as expected, more tightening to follow The Bank of Japan’s decision to raise interest rates at its meeting today was clearly signalled ahead of time and therefore came as no surprise. Crucially, however, the Board’s hawkish messaging suggests …
Monetary policy to remain loose for a while Yesterday, we learnt that New Zealand’s GDP expanded by a solid 1.1% q/q in Q3, well above the RBNZ’s forecast for a 0.4% rise. As a result, financial markets believe that the Bank will be normalising policy …
Underlying price pressures still elevated With inflation still running hot, the Bank of Japan is certain to resume its tightening cycle at its meeting later today. Moreover, we think there’s a compelling case for the Bank to lift rates further than most …
Banxico shifting to a stop-start easing cycle Mexico’s central bank (Banxico) delivered another 25bp rate cut, to 7.00%, today but its communications suggest that it will likely pause at the next meeting in February. We expect a more stop-start easing …
18th December 2025
Overview – We are increasingly confident that the surge in AI-related investment this year marks the start of a multi-year capex boom. Even allowing for ongoing labour market softness that will weigh on consumption growth, we expect GDP growth to be …
The surprisingly soft US CPI data doesn’t change our view that the FOMC will take a more hawkish stance next year than generally expected. And, while one questionable CPI print is not the end of the world, it won’t help the unease evident in the long end …
Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Dec. 2025) …
The tone of today’s ECB press conference was fairly bullish on the economic outlook, but Christine Lagarde stuck rigidly to neutral messaging on future interest rate decisions. While policy changes early next year look extremely unlikely, we think cuts …
Overview – The labour market has bounced back from the US tariff shock, but uncertainty over CUSMA and lower immigration will hold back GDP growth, which we expect to average 1.2% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027. Lower immigration will put downward pressure on …
BLS reports hard-to-believe slump in inflation in shutdown-affected release According to the BLS and its shutdown-affected consumer price data, price inflation suddenly collapsed in October and November. After increasing at an average monthly pace of …
The Bank of England struck a slightly hawkish tone while cutting interest rates from 4.00% to 3.75% today. But with inflation set to fall further than the Bank expects, we still think a rate cut in February is possible and that rates will fall to 3.00% in …
CNB’s next move likely to be a hike The Czech National Bank (CNB) left its policy rate on hold today, at 3.50%, as was widely expected by analysts, and policy settings are likely to remain on hold next year. We continue to think the CNB’s next move will …
Table of Key Forecasts Global Overview – The global economy enters 2026 under the influence of contrasting forces, which will result in moderate GDP growth overall but widening gaps in performance and policy. The economic benefits of AI will strengthen, …
More upbeat forecasts but no change in messaging Today’s ECB press release suggests that the strength of recent economic data has not changed policymakers’ assessment of the monetary policy outlook. Changes in interest rates early next year look extremely …
Oil price drop has further to run in 2026 The steady decline in oil prices over the course of this year continued this week, with Brent dropping to its lowest level since early 2021. And we think that this trend will persist in 2026. This is not a major …
The record decline in the population in the third quarter was mainly due to a sharp drop in international students at the start of the academic year, which will not be repeated. Nonetheless, the accompanying drop in temporary worker numbers helps to …
EM GDP growth has held up well in 2025, but we expect it to slow to ~3.5% in 2026-27, the weakest rate in the past three decades outside times of crisis. There are wide divergences at a country level. Much of the weakness in EM growth stems from a few …
For updated and more detailed analysis see here . Disagreements at the BoE, but cuts in 2026 to keep on coming The Bank of England struck a slightly hawkish tone while cutting interest rates from 4.00% to 3.75% today. But with inflation set to fall …
Our latest Outlook outlines our commodity price forecasts over the coming years. This Update further highlights the key themes and the factors that will shape commodity market developments in 2026. 1) Major question marks over OPEC+ policy. While a …
Although there was an almighty rally in US government bonds after the dotcom boom turned to bust, we doubt that would happen again if the AI bubble burst. Indeed, our forecast is that the 10-year Treasury yield will be broadly unchanged in 2027, which is …
(Very) slow and steady Today’s decision to leave the policy rate at 4.0% came as no surprise and the Bank’s messaging repeated that any further rate cuts will be very gradual. We are forecasting the next cut to come in March but the risks are skewed …
Riksbank increasingly optimistic, but rate hikes a year away While the Riksbank left its policy rate at 1.75% and its forward guidance unchanged today, the economic data have improved significantly over the past few months and have given us greater …
CBC in no rush to cut Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) left its main policy rate on hold today (at 2.00%) and, with growth likely to remain strong and inflation set to stay low, policy settings look set to be left unchanged throughout 2026-27. The decision …
The Australian government’s mid-year budget update showed that efforts to rein in public spending remain few and far between. With the economy pushing up against capacity constraints, the case for the RBA to tighten policy is becoming increasingly …
Upside surprise in GDP won’t alter the rates outlook Although the New Zealand economy bounced back strongly in Q3, the recovery is likely to be choppy going forward. Accordingly, we believe the RBNZ will remain in wait and watch mode for a while to come. …
17th December 2025
While housing activity and prices have been resilient to uncertainty ahead of the Budget and the subdued economic backdrop, there are few signs of a post-Budget rebound in buyer sentiment. If sentiment doesn’t pick-up in early 2026, that would pose a …
Rental growth has ended the year on a strong note, but with yields stable total returns are beginning to ease from their recent level of around 8% y/y. And with yields set to see little movement over the next few years, we expect total returns of just …
Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q4 2025) …
We don’t think the AI rally is dead yet, and expect it to last through 2026. That view underpins our forecasts for strong gains in those equity markets most exposed to it, particularly the US and some of those in Asia. Other equity markets, and ‘risky’ …
The US blockade on sanctioned oil from Venezuela crystallises a key risk that has overshadowed the oil market in recent months. That said, the upside risks for oil prices are limited, not least because even a full loss of Venezuela’s exports would still …
Our View: Most economies in Central and Eastern Europe will experience stronger GDP growth in 2026 as external demand picks up and fiscal policy is kept loose (or loosened), while Russia’s economy will stagnate amid low oil prices as well as war and …
After a very strong 2025, economic growth in India is likely to slow in 2026 in the face of punitive US tariffs. But they could get rolled back and, even if they don’t, India will remain a relative bright spot in the global economy. Inflation has probably …
German economy ends year on a weak note The fall in the German Ifo in December chimes with the drop in the Composite PMI and suggests that the long-awaited recovery in the German economy still has not materialised, with the fiscal stimulus not yet having …
Low inflation will allow the SARB to keep cutting The softer-than-expected South African inflation reading, of 3.5% y/y in November, and weak core inflation will give the Reserve Bank plenty of confidence that it can meet its new, lower 3% inflation …
BI holds, but dovish tone points to fresh easing in 2026 Bank Indonesia left its benchmark interest rate on hold at 4.75% today for a third consecutive meeting but, once again, the accompanying communications were dovish and we still think there’s scope …
This page has been updated with additional analysis since first publication. We’re hosting a 20-minute online briefing at 3pm GMT on Thursday 18 th December on the latest central bank decisions and 2026 policy outlook. (Register here .) Inflation fading …
BoT cut rates, more easing to come Thailand’s central bank (BoT) today cut interest rates by a further 25bps, to 1.25%, and we doubt this marks the end of the easing cycle. With growth struggling and price pressures very low, we expect two additional …
Although emerging market equities are, in some places, very heavily exposed to the AI boom, we think they would in aggregate hold up better than those in the US if that boom continued to unwind. Concerns about US tech have started to resurface, …
Africa Chart Pack (Dec. '25) …
16th December 2025
The tech and non-tech cyclical sectors of the S&P 500 are becoming increasingly disconnected. So, while the positive payrolls data may support some cyclical stocks, tech ones may not get much of a boost in the absence of renewed enthusiasm for AI. The US …
Table of Key Forecasts Overview – EM GDP growth will slow to ~3.5% in 2026-27, the weakest rate in the past three decades outside times of crisis. But there are wide divergences at a country level. Much of the weakness in EM growth stems from a few large …
Private payrolls appear to have found a floor The combined 121,000 rise in private payrolls over October and November was a better result than expected. That positive momentum suggests the Fed will not be overly concerned by the upside surprise in the …
End to EV rebates masks core sales strength Retail sales were unchanged in October, although this was mostly down to lower motor vehicle sales as Biden-era EV rebates were phased out. While household consumption growth will have been weaker in the fourth …
MNB to stay on hold despite inflation dip The decision by the Hungarian central bank (MNB) to leave its base rate on hold today, at 6.50%, was widely expected and, despite a near-term dip in inflation, we expect rates to stay on hold until after the …
The announcement by Argentina’s central bank that it will widen the peso’s trading bands is a step in the right direction, but it won’t be enough to bring the peso closer to its fair value. With the currency likely to remain overvalued, imbalances could …
