If President Trump follows through on his threat to impose secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian energy, leading to a sharp drop in Russian energy flows, it would invariably lead to higher global energy prices. The impact would probably be greater on …
14th July 2025
The Trump administration’s continued re-escalation of tariffs threats have so far made limited impact on financial markets, but one key difference in the way market participants have digested the recent flurry of threats is that the dollar has …
Although estimates of the 10-year Treasury term premium vary, most approaches suggest that it currently sits at around its highest level in a decade or so. We expect it to remain elevated over the coming years. The first and perhaps most widely used …
Mexico’s government seems confident that it can negotiate an agreement to stave off President Trump’s threat of a 30% tariff that was delivered over the weekend. And even if the tariff came into force, so long as carve-outs for USMCA-compliant goods as …
The public finances of several key advanced economies are, to put it mildly, in a mess. Recent attention has been on the United States, where the ‘One, Big, Beautiful Act’ has entrenched large federal budget deficits and reinforced concerns that the …
While the interest-rate-differential-defying strength of EUR/USD may be partly explained by increased currency hedging, it also reflects shifting expectations for economic growth. We think those will be dashed, even if the US doesn’t end up imposing a …
Saudi Arabia’s inflation rate has been remarkably soft relative to most of the emerging world in the post-pandemic era and we think it will slow further – and be weaker than most expect – over the coming years. Given the constraint of the dollar peg, this …
Larger-than-expected drop in inflation puts August rate cut back on the table The larger-than-expected fall in India’s consumer price inflation to 2.1% y/y in June raises the prospect of the RBI cutting interest rates further at its policy meeting next …
Credit growth nearing a cyclical peak The acceleration in broad credit growth last month, to a 16-month high, is a positive sign for the outlook and reduces the risk of a sharp declaration in near-term economic activity. But this tailwind looks set to …
Exports set to slow again before long Growth in export values rebounded somewhat last month, helped by the US-China trade truce. But tariffs are likely to remain high and Chinese manufacturers face growing constraints on their ability to rapidly expand …
Singapore’s economy rebounded sharply during the second quarter, but we doubt this resilience will last. We expect a broad-based slowdown in the coming quarters and continue to expect the central bank to loosen monetary policy further. According to the …
The US dollar is ending the week a touch stronger as President Trump continues to ratchet up his tariff threats again and US interest rate expectations edge higher. As widely expected, the 9 th July deadline for the “pause” on the US’ reciprocal tariffs …
11th July 2025
Fiscal tightening to cause inflation spike in Romania Romania’s fiscal tightening measures will add to the country’s inflation problem in the near term, and we’ve significantly revised up our CPI forecast over the next year. While inflation may be lower …
Trump keeps South Africa in his tariff crosshairs South Africa was threatened with a 30% reciprocal tariff again and, while the economic hit should be manageable, the uneasy relationship with the US suggests that an even higher tariff rate remains a …
You've got mail Canada found itself among the unlucky recipients of a letter from President Donald Trump this week, in which a 35% tariff was threatened to come into effect from August 1 st unless more was done to stop cross-border fentanyl flows. Though …
Inflation picture becoming more benign The raft of June inflation figures released across the region this week were encouraging. Headline inflation fell in Mexico , Colombia and Chile (and by more than expected in the latter two) while inflation in Brazil …
Our proprietary China Activity Proxy shows growth running well below the official figures. Will this weakness persist into 2026 in the face of Trump tariffs and structural headwinds, or can government efforts to boost consumption and rein in overcapacity …
1st October 2025
Our North America team were online shortly after the Bank of Canada decision to unpack the Bank’s latest communications and baseline forecasts. They explained why we expect deeper cuts over the next year than markets anticipate, and outline the main risks …
23rd October 2025
Our UK team hosted a 20-minute online briefing to unpack the latest CPI data, discuss the implications for inflation and policy and explain how they shape our non-consensus Bank Rate view. The team address key issues, including: The forces likely to drive …
20th October 2025
Brazil now faces the highest non-reciprocal US tariff rates in the world – a stark sign of the breakdown in US-Brazil relations. And these tariffs come as Brazil’s balance of payments weakens, as its growth slows and as attention begins to shift to next …
15th September 2025
Japan’s search for a new prime minister has upended its political landscape – and the outcome will shape the country’s economic and market outlook. Our Japan and Markets economists hosted a special online briefing all about Japan’s leadership upheaval and …
13th October 2025
Our EM Financial Risk Indicators are a proprietary early warning system for tracking vulnerabilities across the major emerging markets. In this special briefing, our EM team discussed the highlights of our latest refresh, showing in which economies risks …
31st July 2025
Gold prices continue to set record highs, oil remains under downward pressure, and OPEC+ is facing renewed questions about its long-term cohesion. Against this backdrop, our Commodities team hosted an online briefing to examine the outlook for gold, oil …
10th September 2025
In the face of tariffs, mixed economic data and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, the CRE market has shown a slow but steady recovery path this year. But the outlook for the asset class and many of its sectors remains cloudy, so what’s coming next? Our …
13th November 2025
India has been a global bright spot, but it now faces increased uncertainty as the world fractures into US- and China-led economic blocs. Its recent growth run is at risk in the face of steep US tariffs and the absence of a trade deal. At the same time, …
28th October 2025
The LDP’s weak performance in the Upper House elections signals pressure for looser fiscal policy, just as the Bank of Japan is constrained from tackling rising inflation in the face of tariff threats. With Japanese government bond yields pushing at …
21st July 2025
Our latest UK Economic Outlook explains how the Chancellor’s likely tax hikes in November’s Budget risk adding to the existing drags on economic growth and the labour market, resulting in the Bank of England cutting interest rates further than most …
22nd September 2025
Two years ago, we argued that structural forces – from AI-driven productivity gains to ageing demographics and higher government borrowing – would push equilibrium real interest rates in the US and across developed markets far above what markets were then …
11th September 2025
Our US team hosted a special online briefing just after the July CPI release, all about the US economic and policy outlook. During this session, the team answered questions from the audience and addressed key issues, including: What the latest inflation …
7th August 2025
Tariffs in effect. Inflation under debate. Divided central banks. Geopolitical strains. Equities at record highs. After a busy summer of economic, geopolitical and financial market maneuverings, what should investors expect in the remaining months of …
18th August 2025
The Bank of England and European Central Bank’s final decisions of 2025 follow a week after the Fed’s and close a year in which all three have been trying with mixed success to steer inflation back to 2 percent. What will they do in their last policy …
20th November 2025
In this special post-Budget session, our macro and property economists assessed the implications for commercial property returns. The team discussed how this Budget could have immediate consequences for the residential market, while looking further out …
10th November 2025
Will the US economy continue to outperform on the back of the AI boom? How will trade tensions shape global macro outcomes? Should investors expect further highs in equities – and brace for more bond market jitters? The World in 2026 is our definitive …
26th November 2025
Our economists were online on Wednesday 10th December, shortly after the statement and the Powell press conference, to deliver their take on the decision and the latest communications. … US Drop-In: Fed December meeting – A tight call and the 2026 policy …
24th November 2025
The resignation of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu adds fresh uncertainty to France’s economic and market outlook. What can President Macron do to break the political deadlock over the public finances? Should investors brace for new elections? And how …
6th October 2025
François Bayrou has survived eight no-confidence votes since becoming France’s Prime Minister late last year. But this Monday’s confidence vote – called by Bayrou himself – could yet bring down his government. With France’s strained public finances at the …
2nd September 2025
The sacking of Indonesian finance minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati marks the latest twist in a crisis that has been engulfing what until recently was one of Asia’s standout growth stories. Our economists hosted a special online briefing to answer client …
8th September 2025
The EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is coming. Set to begin in 2026, it will require EU importers to pay for the carbon emitted in the production of goods they bring into the bloc – effectively extending the ‘polluter pays’ principle to …
8th October 2025
Our latest Asset Allocation Outlook explains why we remain far above consensus on the S&P 500 in 2026 – and why other tech-heavy equity markets may not be far behind. Economists from our Markets team hosted an online briefing to unpack the case for …
7th October 2025
Four months after the arrest of opposition leader Ekrem İmamoğlu reignited political risk in Turkey, market conditions have stabilised. The lira has firmed, capital is flowing back in, and reserves are rebuilding. But is the macro adjustment on solid …
The Reserve Bank of Australia has consistently advocated a cautious approach to policy easing. But with economic momentum fading and the labour market showing signs of softening, the case for unwinding its restrictive monetary stance is growing. In that …
22nd July 2025
India is facing fresh tensions with the Trump administration. The president is threatening steep tariffs in response to India’s continued oil trade with Russia – even as he’s reportedly preparing to hold direct talks with Vladimir Putin. How this all …
29th July 2025
Our senior economists from our US, Europe and UK teams hosted this online briefing to dive into the latest decisions and comms from the Fed, ECB and Bank of England, and to answer client questions. … Central Bank Drop-In: Unpacking the Fed, ECB and Bank …
13th August 2025
Global property markets have been recovering through the first half of 2025, with tariffs and other uncertainties showing only limited impact so far. But the recovery remains slow: REITs continue to trade at sizeable discounts to NAV, closed-end fund …
19th August 2025
Our Markets economists hosted this online briefing on the state of the equity market and the role that confidence in AI’s promise continues to play in driving it. They answered client questions and set out the key issues, including: • Why we think the AI …
17th November 2025
Our EM Financial Risk Indicators are a proprietary early warning system for tracking vulnerabilities across the major emerging markets. In this special fourth quarter briefing, our EM team walked clients through the highlights of our latest refresh, …
27th October 2025
Against a backdrop of higher mortgage rates and stuttering employment, the prospect of tax rises in the Budget on 26th November has put the UK housing market on ice. Is this the start of a sustained downturn, or just a temporary pause? Our UK team hosted …
Our economists hosted this fast focused briefing shortly after Rachel Reeves’ statement to the House of Commons, to discuss what the Budget means for the economy, housing and markets, and to answer questions from the audience. … UK Drop-In: The Autumn …
3rd November 2025
