Japan Rapid Response Japan BoJ Tankan (Q4 22) & Machinery Orders (Oct. 22) 14th December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Blackstone and Starwood symptoms rather than causes On the face of it, the news of unlisted REITs reaching redemptions limits suggests cause for concern as it could point to forced sales over the coming months. However, both BREIT and SREIT have solid... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t think US disinflation will prevent a drop in US equities The weaker US inflation data released today have bolstered our view that Treasury yields will drop a bit between now and the end of next year. But we still think that growing fears of a recession will... 13th December 2022 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Wage growth slowdown to drive inflation even lower Despite some mixed signals in the recent data, we still expect the tentative easing of labour market conditions already seen to push wage growth lower soon, with that slowdown gathering pace as... 13th December 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Return (Q3 22) The detailed mortgage lending data for Q3 show that demand was resilient to rising mortgage rates at first. Loan-to-income ratios crept up despite rising financing costs. But with interest rates on... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (December) The further recovery in the ZEW in December confirms that sentiment in Germany has improved a bit, but it remains at a very low level and we still think Germany is now already in a recession. 13th December 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Oct./Nov.) Coming on the back of yesterday’s larger-than-expected rise in GDP in October, today’s news that the labour market is loosening only gradually and wage growth continues to accelerate might further... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Fixed-rate expiry large shock to household finances The full impact of the RBA’s aggressive tightening cycle on household finances hasn’t been felt yet because one-third of all mortgages have fixed-rates. Around 60% of those will expire next year and... 13th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Central banks will reverse course as growth stalls Soaring interest rates and weak real income growth will result in a more pronounced slowdown in economic activity in both countries than most anticipate. With New Zealand’s central bank determined to... 12th December 2022 · 26 mins read
Japan Economics Update Food import price aftershocks to affect 2023 We expect inflation to remain above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target through the middle of next year despite government utility price caps and falling non-food inflation over that period. One reason is... 12th December 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Oct.) The 0.5% m/m rise in GDP in October was mostly due to the rebound after September’s extra bank holiday. Even so, the surprisingly strong rise could tilt the Bank of England towards another bumper... 12th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank’s latest hike puts further pressure on housing The Bank of Canada’s 50bp rate hike this week means that variable mortgage rates are now more than 400bp higher than the start of the year. This raises the risk that some will be forced to sell their... 9th December 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Retail recession drags on despite World Cup With retail sales volumes in November likely to have remained a little below their pre-pandemic level and 4.0% below their level at the start of the year, for retailers the recession is well underway... 9th December 2022 · 14 mins read
