UK Commercial Property Update Lending to property will soon go into reverse The rise in net lending to real estate over the past couple of months may reflect some investors looking to buy commercial property assets at discounted prices. But a repeat of the mid-2000s, when... 9th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Treasury rally may almost have run its course We expect the 10-year Treasury yield to decline only a little further as US inflation continues to ease. 9th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Dovish Bank of Canada points to widening US-Canada yield gap We think the yield gap between 10-year US Treasuries and Canadian Government Bonds will remain wide next year, as we expect the Bank of Canada is nearing an early end of its hiking cycle and will... 8th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update On the timing and scale of a sustained rebound in the S&P 500 We suspect that the S&P 500 will make a new cyclical low by the spring of 2023 as a shallow recession gets underway in the US, before rebounding to end next year higher than it is now. In view of the... 8th December 2022 · 4 mins read
BoE Watch Peak is in sight, but we’re not there yet A shift from the 75 basis point hike in interest rates in November to a 50 basis point rise, from 3.00% to 3.50%, at the policy meeting on Thursday 15th December would show that the Monetary Policy... 8th December 2022 · 8 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Moderate recession to drive inflation lower The economy is heading for a moderate recession, as higher interest rates weigh on domestic demand and exports contract amid the global downturn. Weaker demand, together with lower commodity prices... 8th December 2022 · 20 mins read
US Housing Market Update Single-family rental growth set to fall back to earth The single-family rental market has been on a roll since the GFC and the pandemic provided a further boost. Nonetheless, while it may hold up slightly better than multifamily over the next year or so... 8th December 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Nov.) The RICS survey confirmed that there were widespread house price falls in November. Surveyors expect a further drop in prices and slowdown in transactions ahead, in line with our forecasts. 8th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Oct. 2022) The October trade data point to a huge boost from net trade to Q4 GDP growth but we suspect that a further fall in exports will moderate that contribution. 8th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia International Trade (Oct. 22) 8th December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Nov.) A fall in mortgage rates from recent 20-year highs helped home purchase applications rise for the first time in eight months in November. However, while we expect mortgage rates to continue to trend... 7th December 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Economic Outlook A tough year 2023 will be a tough year for the economy as the effects of the previous rises in inflation and previous hikes in interest rates (as well as a future rise from 3.00% now to a peak of 4.50% in early... 7th December 2022 · 27 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (Oct.) German industrial production once again held up better than expected in October. But this resilience was driven partly by a recovery in construction which tends to be volatile. We still expect high... 7th December 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Nov.) The largest monthly fall in in the Halifax house price index since October 2008 confirms that the house price correction that we forecast has begun. While mortgage rates have fallen back somewhat in... 7th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Why this might have been another false start for the S&P 500 Although the 10-year Treasury yield has already dropped by roughly 60bp since the release of October’s CPI report on 10th November, we still see scope for it to end 2023 a bit lower than its current... 6th December 2022 · 6 mins read
