US Economics Weekly Price pressures easing even as consumers go crazy This week brought more data showing that real economic activity is holding up surprisingly well given surging interest rates but, in part due to the easing in labour market conditions, price pressures... 1st September 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Q2) The surprise contraction in second-quarter GDP leaves little doubt that the Bank of Canada will keep interest rates unchanged next week. With the fall in monthly GDP in June and the apparent... 1st September 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Weekly BoE to talk up high for long This week the Bank of England’s Chief Economist, Huw Pill, said that he didn’t think interest rates will rise much further from 5.25% now but that rates are likely to stay high for a long time. We’re... 1st September 2023 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Employment Report (Aug.) The 187,000 gain in non-farm payrolls, jump in the unemployment rate and slowdown in wage growth in August all add to the evidence that labour market conditions are approaching pre-pandemic norms... 1st September 2023 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.) Australian house prices rose at a blistering pace in August, as demand continued to outstrip supply. Although the property market is likely to remain tight in the near term, we think house price... 1st September 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Further weakness in store for world trade Not only did global goods trade fall in June, but timelier trade and survey data for July and August point to further declines. Meanwhile, with the lagged impact of high interest rates likely to weigh... 31st August 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) We’ve become a bit more confident in our forecast that the Bank of England will raise interest rates from 5.25% now to a peak of 5.50%, rather than much further, as higher interest rates appear to be... 31st August 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Industrial action looms, residential investment falls Earlier this week, unions at Chevron's Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG plants in Australia announced their intent to begin strike action from September 7th. Although the industrial dispute will have a... 31st August 2023 · 7 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Economy flatlining in Q3, but recession unlikely Note: We’ll be discussing the China growth/stimulus question, the BOJ’s policy outlook, Indian food price inflation and more in our monthly Asia Drop-In on Thursday, 31 st August. Register here to... 31st August 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Private Capex Survey (Q2 2023) We don’t think the ongoing strength in private fixed investment will last. However, the balance of risks to our outlook for activity is now tilted somewhat to the upside. 31st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Jul. 23) 31st August 2023 · 2 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch No need for Bank to hike again Inflation has surprised to the upside of the Bank of Canada’s forecasts but, given signs of slower GDP growth and looser labour market conditions, the Bank should be happy keeping interest rates on... 30th August 2023 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Rapid Response US Metro Employment (Jul.) Employment growth in July was near the average seen in 2023 thus far, at a seasonally-adjusted 0.5% 3m/3m across the 30 metros we cover. But the disappointing performance of information jobs continues... 30th August 2023 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response GDP (Q2), ADP (Aug.), Advance Economic Indicators (Jul.) 30th August 2023 · 2 mins read
