Europe Economics Update German fiscal policy to remain looser than pre-Covid The German government is unlikely to announce the kind of big stimulus package that some are calling for. However, fiscal policy will remain much more supportive than it was before the pandemic. 6th September 2023 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response International Trade (July) Net external trade is on track to provide a modest positive contribution to third-quarter GDP growth, despite the widening in the monthly trade deficit to $65.0bn in July, from $63.7bn. 6th September 2023 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Labour market almost back into balance A growing number of indicators suggest that the labour market is no longer much tighter than it was in 2019 and that, as a result, wage growth is also likely to slow towards pre-pandemic levels soon... 6th September 2023 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response Mortgage Applications (Aug.) Mortgage rates continue to weigh on demand Mortgage applications for home purchase continued to slip in August, recording the largest monthly fall since February. This latest drop has kept mortgage... 6th September 2023 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Update Denver’s poor jobs performance should be short-lived Denver’s poor jobs market performance over the last year appears to have been driven by a combination of a downsizing in Central Bank staff and layoffs in its large telecoms sector. But the former’s... 5th September 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Pandemic trends are approaching their end The adoption of remote work meant central London was left out of the COVID-19 house price boom. But with house prices in outlying towns and rural areas around the capital starting to stagnate too... 5th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Is Japan experiencing greedflation? At first glance, the rise in corporate profits to a record-high last quarter suggests that greedy firms are driving up consumer prices. However, we still think that most of the increase in inflation... 5th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBA will cut rates as soon as early-2024 The RBA retained its tightening bias when it kept interest rates unchanged at 4.10% today. However, we think the Bank’s next move will be a rate cut, perhaps as early as the first quarter of next year... 5th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Bank of Japan will remain the odd one out We no longer expect Japan’s economy to enter a recession. However, with real household incomes set to fall until the end of this year, domestic demand growth will remain sluggish. Accordingly, we... 4th September 2023 · 18 mins read
UK Economics Update Growth upgrade suggests UK no longer such a laggard The news that the UK economy may now be 1.5% bigger than its Q4 2019 pre-pandemic size, rather than 0.2% smaller, suggests the economy has been much stronger than we previously thought. But with the... 1st September 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs still point to weak outlook for industry in DMs Although a rise in Chinese manufacturing output meant that the decline in global manufacturing activity eased slightly in August, the outlook for industry in advanced economies in particular remains... 1st September 2023 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank to pause amid rising recession risks The surprise second-quarter contraction in GDP was partly due to the wildfires but, even without that damage, growth would have been very weak. With the August CFIB Business Barometer showing further... 1st September 2023 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) The further rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a six-month high of 47.6 in August, from 46.4, is another sign that overall activity growth is picking up slightly in the third quarter. But the... 1st September 2023 · 2 mins read
