BoE Watch One last hike We think that a 25 basis point (bps) rise in interest rates, from 5.25% to 5.50%, at the Bank of England’s policy meeting on Thursday 21st September will be the last hike in this cycle and that sticky... 14th September 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Although central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are unlikely to drop... 14th September 2023 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Labour Market (Aug. 23) Although job creation rose at a breakneck pace last month, it was matched by an equally forceful expansion of the labour force. And with signs of spare capacity in the labour market starting to... 14th September 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Aug.) Depressed activity remains consistent with falling house prices. The further deterioration of the RICS survey figures in August suggest the peak in mortgage rates seen in July are continuing to dampen... 14th September 2023 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch Easing inflation to drive rates sharply lower next year The Fed is set to keep rates unchanged at 5.25%-5.50% at the FOMC meeting next week and the new projections could show that plans for further hikes have been scrapped. We continue to expect the Fed’s... 13th September 2023 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The Fed will look through the 0.6% m/m jump in headline CPI in August as it was driven by the recent rally in energy prices. Although core prices also rose by a slightly stronger 0.3% m/m, there is... 13th September 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update What will it take to bring down wage growth? Although wage growth is clearly falling in the US, the same cannot be said for the UK and euro-zone despite some evidence of labour markets cooling there too. A further fall in inflation expectations... 13th September 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Jul. 2023) The 0.5% m/m fall in real GDP in July could possibly mean that the mild recession we have been expecting has begun. Even so, with wage growth still uncomfortably strong, we suspect the Bank of England... 13th September 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Uncovering the factors impacting downtown recoveries Data on cell phone usage suggest that cities with a high share of professional, scientific and technical occupations and long commute times are typically associated with poorer downtown recoveries... 12th September 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update High rates restrain lending and push up arrears The Q2 Mortgage Lenders and Administrators statistics from the Bank of England showed that higher rates are limiting lending and making it more difficult than ever for single-income households to get... 12th September 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Jul./Aug. 2023) The tightness of the labour market continued to ease in July. But the further rise in wage growth will only add to the Bank of England’s unease and supports our view that the Bank will raise interest... 12th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We no longer expect the economy to enter a recession. But with real disposable incomes falling, we... 11th September 2023 · 1 min read
Capital Daily A look at what’s been driving up the 10Y Treasury yield Although upward pressure on the 10-year Treasury yield has abated a bit, the big picture is that it has risen by ~80bp on net in the past four months. While some of this rise has reflected a... 8th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Macklem more confident that Bank will meet its target In his speech this week, Governor Tiff Macklem sounded much more confident that the Bank will be able to meet its 2% inflation target. The latest labour market and local housing data suggest that may... 8th September 2023 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Higher energy prices not a game changer for the Fed The further rise this week in the WTI crude oil price to a 10-month high of $87 a barrel, from a recent low of less than $70 in late June, has raised fears that the resulting rebound in consumer price... 8th September 2023 · 8 mins read
