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Recession Watch (Aug.)

Our composite tracking models suggest that the chances of a recession within the next year have risen markedly. That said, the immediate risks still appear to be low, with the boost to real incomes from the continued drop in gasoline prices set to drive a solid rebound in third-quarter GDP.

Note: We’ll be discussing the US August employment report in an online Drop-In session on Friday, 2nd September. Register now.

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