UK to lag behind in the global recovery

This week marked a return to the generally gloomy news on the pace of the recovery, reinforcing our concerns that the UK recovery will be slower than in some other major economies. This has less to do with the policy support put in place by the government, which has been larger than in most other countries, and more to do with the larger share of the UK’s GDP coming from sectors like restaurants and entertainment and the uncertainty caused by Brexit. That’s why we think that by the end of the year policymakers will still be focusing on more, rather than less, stimulus.