Colombian growth to slow even if oil prices recover

Fears about the coronavirus have weighed on oil prices and clouded the near-term outlook for Colombia’s economy. But even if – as we expect, the virus is brought under control soon and oil prices recover, growth will probably be a lot weaker than most predict in 2020-21. This in turn means that the policy rate is likely to be left on hold this year, rather than being hiked as markets are pricing in.