US Housing Market Update Will MBS be tapered first or last and does it matter for housing? Although the Fed may opt for the simplicity of running down purchases of both Treasuries and MBS simultaneously, we think that it makes sense to leave tapering of MBS purchases for last. That said... 15th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Are house prices increasing by less than the indices suggest? The decline in the share of distressed sales is having an upward influence on house prices. But we aren’t convinced by claims that the house price indices’ failure to adjust for this effect is somehow... 2nd August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed likely to begin QE taper in September There is nothing in the latest FOMC statement released today to suggest that Fed officials have changed their minds about starting to taper the monthly asset purchases in September. 31st July 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update New York City house price growth may slow Helped by attractive jumbo mortgage rates and interest from foreign buyers, house price growth in New York City is well above the national average rate. But we stand by our call that price growth in... 18th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Easing cost pressures a further boost to homebuilders The 25% fall in lumber prices in the past two months is helping to relieve cost pressures on homebuilders. Combined with surging homebuilder confidence, it looks like housing starts are set to rise... 11th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Foreign buyers peripheral to housing recovery A couple of years ago, a lot was being made of the potential for foreign buyers to come to the rescue of the housing market. We were dubious of these claims at the time, and a recent NAR survey seems... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Higher mortgage rates here to stay In light of the changing prospects for US monetary policy, we have revised our 10-year Treasury yield forecasts higher. Accordingly, recent gains in 30-year mortgage rates are unlikely to be unwound... 26th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update The pace of house price gains is set to slow We expect the pace of house price gains to slow later this year and decelerate further in 2014. This will not signal the end of the US housing recovery, but a new phase in which house price growth is... 24th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed likely to begin QE taper in September In most advanced western economies the supply of labour is likely to be boosted by a rise in labour market participation during the coming year or two. This should help to prevent wage inflation... 19th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How concerned should we be about higher mortgage rates? The rise in mortgage interest rates has the potential to generate a hiatus in housing sales and starts over the summer. At the margins, the rise also adds to the case for expecting the housing... 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Are inventory levels starting to normalise? The return of double-digit rates of house price inflation has grabbed most of the headlines in recent days. But equally significant are signs that sellers are returning to the market in force. We... 30th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Are mortgage credit conditions loosening? Mortgage-dependent buyers have been unable to play the sort of role in this housing recovery that they have in previous cycles because mortgage credit conditions have remained tighter for longer. But... 14th May 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Homeownership rate likely to fall further yet Tight credit conditions and the backlog of foreclosures still to be worked through mean that the homeownership rate will slide lower over the next year or so. But with owner-occupation still the... 2nd May 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed appears less inclined to curb QE anytime soon The Fed's assessment of the economic outlook didn't change much in the statement issued today, but the FOMC nevertheless felt it necessary to flag up explicitly that the pace of asset purchases could... 1st May 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Talk of a US housing bubble is premature We place significant emphasis on valuations in our analysis of residential property markets. So we cannot take issue with those who have recently pointed out that house price gains which are twice the... 12th April 2013 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Lower yields will undermine investment case - but not this year House prices are rising at a quicker pace than rents, which is weighing on rental yields. But the reduction in yields is currently very gradual, while the total return from housing remains attractive... 28th March 2013 · 1 min read
