US Housing Market Update Low demand constraining sales, not low supply Recent suggestions that home sales are being held back by a lack of inventory are misguided as the excess inventory may still amount to one million homes. Moreover, the "shadow inventory" may consist... 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Households less willing and less able to buy Recent evidence showing that fewer Americans see owning a home as a central part of the American Dream and that fewer have a credit score high enough to make that dream a reality supports our long... 5th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed action will do little to boost economy Operation Twist is a go, albeit with a small twist on the twist. The Fed's announcement today that it will act to extend the average maturity of its Treasury holdings, by buying $400bn of securities... 22nd September 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Widening refinancing scheme won't help much Any changes to the Administration's current program that would allow more households to refinance their mortgage at a lower rate would be welcome. But such moves won't provide a major boost to the... 16th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update FHFA's new house price index still falls short The FHFA's new "expanded-data" house price index is better than its other indices as it includes some purchases made with cash and non-conforming loans. However, as it is still a less comprehensive... 7th September 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed's longer low rate pledge won't change much The Fed's pledge to keep interest rates exceptionally low for much longer than previously won't significantly boost the real economy. Admittedly, the chances of QE3 have risen. But the rebound in core... 10th August 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Don't fret over expected downward revisions to home sales The expected downward revisions to the number of existing homes sales will not be the disaster widely assumed. Because the house price data will be unchanged, it could even be considered good news as... 12th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Lower loan limits won't be a disaster The scheduled reduction in conforming mortgage loan limits at the start of October is unlikely to trigger a further precipitous fall in house prices as some have suggested. Nevertheless, it certainly... 6th July 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Homes at the low end of the market still most vulnerable A continuation of tight credit conditions for first-time buyers and a foreclosure pipeline full of homes bought with sub-prime loans will mean that house prices at the low end of the market will... 28th June 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed biding its time The statement issued today after the end of the two-day FOMC meeting offered no hint that the recent signs of a renewed economic slowdown might tempt the Fed to launch another round of large-scale... 23rd June 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Outlook for condo prices not as bleak Recent news has highlighted the severity of the renewed downturn in prices of single-family homes. Although condominiums will not escape altogether, over the next year or so condo prices are likely to... 9th May 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed in no hurry to tighten policy In his first post-FOMC meeting press conference, Chairman Ben Bernanke gave the impression that the Fed is in no hurry to tighten monetary policy. 27th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed likely to complete QE2 as planned Despite the fact that Fed officials now believe the economic recovery is on a "firmer footing" and that surging commodity prices are putting "upward pressure" on headline inflation, it looks like QE2... 15th March 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Cash won't be king for forever The fact that the recent rebound in existing home sales has been predominantly driven by cash buyers and investors places a question mark over the sustainability of that rebound. The concern is that... 2nd March 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Four obstacles to housing finance reform The Obama Administration's recent proposals to wind down the government-owned institutions of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and create a market in which private businesses are the primary source of... 17th February 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Higher mortgage rates doing little to dent affordability The recent rise in mortgage rates to a 10-month high has done little to dent affordability. Even a doubling in rates would leave our long-term measure of affordability below that seen before the... 14th February 2011 · 1 min read
