US Employment Report Preview Base effects will temporarily depress wage growth Our econometric model points to a solid 210,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in January, which should lower the unemployment rate to 4.9%, leaving it in line with the Fed’s median estimate of the long... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Jump in wage growth not all due to base effects Our econometric model indicates a 210,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in December, which should be enough to nudge the unemployment rate down to 4.9%. Base effects mean that even a modest 0.2%... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market slack rapidly shrinking Our econometric model points to a solid 220,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in November, although we expect the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 5.0%. Base effects mean that even if... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth probably rebounded in October Our econometric model indicates that non-farm payrolls rose by a stronger 200,000 in October, up from an average monthly gain of 167,000 over the prior three months. Whether that would be sufficient... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth to slow… but that’s okay Our econometric model points to a 200,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in September. We expect the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 5.1%. With the job openings rate comfortably at a record high... 24th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market showing “some” further improvement Our econometric model points to a more modest 220,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in August, which would probably push the unemployment rate down to 5.2%, from 5.3%. That would seem to meet the Fed... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market slack continues to shrink Our econometric model points to a 250,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in July, although we suspect that the unemployment rate remained at 5.3%, as the labour force rebounds. 30th July 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Model points to another big gain in payrolls Our econometric model points to a 290,000 gainin non-farm payrolls in May and, as a result, wealso expect the unemployment rate to edge downto 5.4%. 25th June 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market appears to be strengthening Our econometric model points to a 280,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May and we also expect the unemployment rate to edge down to 5.3%. 28th May 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview March weakness unlikely to be repeated in April We don't think that the unexpectedly weak 126,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in March signals the start of a deterioration in labour market conditions. Other indicators have remained at robust levels... 30th April 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Decline in mining employment will be relatively modest Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payrolls increased by 240,000 in March. We anticipate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.5%. 26th March 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Weather and port dispute are downside risks Our econometric model indicates that non-farm payrolls increased by a slightly more modest 230,000 in February, down from an average monthly gain of 336,000 over the preceding three months. It is... 26th February 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview A strong employment gain should trigger wages rebound Our econometric model indicates that non-farm payrolls increased by as much as 250,000 in January, which would broadly match the increase in December. As a result, we expect the unemployment rate to... 29th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Another bumper report The latest evidence suggests that the impressive 321,000 rise in non-farm payroll employment in November was no fluke. We expect that it was followed by a gain of 300,000 in December. That would push... 5th January 2015 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Upside risk of a very strong gain in non-farm payrolls Our econometric model points to a 300,000 gain in payrolls in November although, hedging our bets, we have trimmed our actual forecast to 250,000. Nevertheless, any gain above 200,000 should be enough... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Going from strength to strength There’s a good chance that October’s Employment Report will send a very strong signal that, despite the recent signs of some softening in overseas demand, the US economy continues to grow at a rapid... 30th October 2014 · 1 min read
