US Economics Durable Goods (Jun.) The June durable goods data were a little weaker than we had expected, but the further rise in underlying orders suggests that business equipment investment growth is slowing only gradually. 27th July 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Will the pandemic boost productivity growth? Productivity growth surged during the pandemic last year, but that was principally due to the disproportionate job losses in low-productivity sectors like leisure & hospitality, which raised the... 27th July 2021 · 19 mins read
US Economics Delta variant adds to consumption headwinds Although 60% of American adults are now fully vaccinated, the uptick in coronavirus infections linked to the Delta variant has been accompanied by a slight rebound in fears over the spread of the... 20th July 2021 · 9 mins read
US Economics Democrats kick-start budget; Powell future uncertain The Democrats’ $3.5trn budget proposal is only the first step in what could be a protracted negotiation to a final bill, which will be roughly fiscally neutral. Meanwhile, another dovish showing from... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
US Economics Retail Sales (June) The 0.6% m/m gain in retail sales in June was a little stronger than we were expecting, but upward revisions to the decline in May take the gloss off that somewhat and, besides, with consumer prices... 16th July 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Industrial Production (Jun) The modest 0.4% m/m increase in industrial production in June was due to a weather-related spike in utilities demand and a recovery in mining output, with manufacturing output dragged down by another... 15th July 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics A whiff of stagflation Supply shortages will ease only gradually over the next couple of years, putting sustained upward pressure on core inflation and constraining real activity. We expect core inflation to remain above 3%... 13th July 2021 · 23 mins read
US Economics Fed’s actions will speak louder than its words The Fed’s new average inflation framework implies that more stimulus measures are on the way, but it isn’t clear if officials will be ready to make wholesale changes at next week’s FOMC meeting... 9th September 2020 · 8 mins read
US Economics International Trade (Jun.) The latest trade figures confirm that both exports and imports finally began to rebound in June, and we could see continued rapid gains over the coming months as trade catches up with the strong... 5th August 2020 · 2 mins read
