Climate Economics Update A closer look at the UK’s renewable auction “success” The ~8GW of renewable generating capacity procured at the UK government’s latest energy auction could help to lift renewables’ share in the UK’s energy mix to over 70% by 2030, and underlines the UK’s... 14th January 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Get ready for a big fall in UK inflation to 2.0% We think April’s inflation data (released on 20th May) will reveal that, after spending almost five years above target, CPI inflation has finally fallen to 2.0%. This would be below the consensus... 12th January 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Four ways the UK consensus may be wrong in 2026 We think investors will be surprised by how far inflation, interest rates and gilt yields fall this year. That said, these forecasts could be knocked off course should fiscal policy not be tightened... 7th January 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Hawkish tilt at the BoE, but rate cuts to keep on coming The Bank of England struck a slightly hawkish tone while cutting interest rates from 4.00% to 3.75% today. But with inflation set to fall further than the Bank expects, we still think a rate cut in... 18th December 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update The market consequences of Reeves/Starmer’s potential demise Although the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, succeeded in reducing gilt yields by 5-15 basis points and raising the pound by 0.3% after the Budget, the chances of a gilt market sell-off remain high... 2nd December 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Autumn Budget 2025 Checklist This checklist helps clients track the policies and forecasts announced in the Chancellor’s Autumn Budget at 12:30pm (GMT) on Wednesday 26 th November. Read our Previews here. We will send a Rapid... 24th November 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Will gilt yields climb further after next week’s UK Budget? We think gilt yields are more likely to fall than rise in the immediate aftermath of the Budget on 26th November. But the chances of an adverse gilt market reaction remain high, and the Budget poses... 21st November 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update A pause in BoE interest rate cuts, not the end The Bank of England stressed that today’s decision to leave interest rates at 4.00% is a pause in the downward trend in interest rates rather than the end. With a tightening in fiscal policy in the... 6th November 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update CE UK Wage Indicator suggests pay growth is stuck at 5% Our CE UK Wage Indicator extracts the overall signal from a range of measures of wage growth and suggests that while pay growth probably isn’t rising as fast as the official data suggest, it isn’t... 4th November 2025 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Food inflation is close to its peak We think food inflation is close to its peak and that it will fall next year. Not only will this help to bring down CPI inflation, it will also assist in easing inflation expectations. This may... 21st October 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Europe being left behind in the AI boom While huge investment in AI has been driving US GDP growth this year, Europe has seen a negligible boost to investment. And it seems unlikely that AI investment in Europe will increase by much in the... 14th October 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Why are the UK’s borrowing costs higher than France’s? The UK’s high borrowing costs relative to those of France appears to reflect differences in monetary policy and its higher inflation rate, rather than greater fiscal concerns. As inflation in the UK... 9th October 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update UK Car finance refunds slim compensation with tax rises coming The possible £8.2bn of compensation for the mis-selling of car finance will be a nice windfall for some households. But it’s much smaller than the similar payments of £38.3bn in the 2010s and will... 8th October 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE unlikely to cut interest rates again this year While leaving interest rates at 4.00% today (as expected) and signalling that rates will still fall from here, the Bank of England reiterated its concerns over rising inflation. As a result, we... 18th September 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update What could trigger a fiscal crisis in the UK? Many of the conditions which have led to fiscal crises in the past are now in place. This does not mean a fiscal crisis in the UK is imminent or inevitable. The missing ingredient is a trigger. If a... 5th September 2025 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update UK Versus the Euro-zone in Charts Over the next 18 months, we expect CPI inflation and interest rates in the UK to fall closer to the euro-zone equivalents. And even though it has its own problems, the UK’s fiscal situation is not as... 4th September 2025 · 1 min read
