UK Economics Update What next for UK petrol and utility prices, inflation and interest rates We’ve refreshed our scenarios for what the Middle East conflict could mean for CPI inflation and also fleshed out what the leap in energy prices could mean for petrol prices, utility prices and... 5th March 2026 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Update UK industry, hotels and retail vulnerable to rising energy costs The recent rise in the UK wholesale gas price due to the events in the Middle East, so far, points to only a modest rise in firms’ energy costs. But industry and those services sectors hit hardest by... 5th March 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Slower UK interest rate cuts more likely than rate hikes While parallels are being made with the energy price shock caused by the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, the rise in energy prices as a result of the conflict in the Middle East has so far been smaller... 5th March 2026 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update UK Fiscal Statement: Extra headroom may soon be wiped out The Chancellor didn’t announce any major new policies in her fiscal statement and, on the face of it, has a bit more money to play with come the Budget in the autumn. But that could be swamped by... 3rd March 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update BoE particularly sensitive to energy price risks With actual CPI inflation and inflation expectations both still above target-consistent rates, the Bank of England is likely to be more sensitive to the upside risks to inflation caused by the recent... 2nd March 2026 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update The consequences of the Middle East conflict The global economic impact of conflict in the Middle East will hinge on its effect on energy markets. If oil stays near $70-$80 per barrel, DM inflation will be only about 0.2-0.3 percentage points... 2nd March 2026 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Questions & answers on the new US tariff regime The imposition of a 10% Section 122 tariff on all countries leaves the weighted-average US tariff rate about 3.5%-points lower than was the case under the IEEPA framework, although the difference will... 23rd February 2026 (Updated 24th February 2026) · 8 mins read
UK Economics Update UK Fiscal Statement Preview: Possible flashpoint for Starmer/Reeves The Chancellor’s fiscal statement to Parliament on Tuesday 3rd March has the potential to be another flashpoint for Prime Minister Starmer and Chancellor Reeves. But whether Starmer/Reeves hang on or... 18th February 2026 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update What the “Starmer drama” means for Gilts and Sterling Keir Starmer appears to have fended off the latest challenge to his leadership, but his premiership hangs by a thread. This Update examines what previous political episodes can tell us about what his... 11th February 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Three scenarios for the UK economy and markets if Starmer/Reeves are replaced This note republishes our three scenarios for the economy and the financial markets should Keir Starmer and/or Rachel Reeves be replaced as Prime Minister and Chancellor. In each scenario, gilt yields... 8th February 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Dovish BoE supports our view that rates will be cut to 3.00% While leaving interest rates at 3.75% today, as widely expected, the Bank of England sounded more dovish than we anticipated. This this supports our long-held view that interest rates will be reduced... 5th February 2026 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Lessons from the past and key UK fiscal policy risks for 2026 We expect the budget deficit to halve over the next three years and reach a 24-year low in 2030/31. But the risk of it overshooting our forecast over the next few years has grown. That could happen if... 28th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Your questions about tensions over Greenland We hosted an online Drop-In session today to discuss escalating tensions over Greenland and their economic implications. (Recording available here.) This Update provides answers to some of the... 19th January 2026 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Update Trump’s Greenland tariffs would be another drag for the UK If President Trump’s latest tariff threats were actually implemented, they would add to the existing pain for UK car and pharmaceutical manufacturers and in a worse-case scenario could reduce UK GDP... 19th January 2026 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Soft UK consumer spending in Q4 a sign of things to come A slew of data released in the first couple of weeks of the year suggests that retailers had a disappointing so-called “Golden Quarter”. We suspect this is a sign of things to come and forecast that... 15th January 2026 · 3 mins read
Bonds Update Fiscal sleight-of-hand may help push Gilt yields lower The government’s ongoing efforts to shorten its debt issuance mix is likely helping to address the demand/supply imbalance in the Gilt market and easing upward pressure on longer-dated Gilt yields... 15th January 2026 · 4 mins read
