UK Economics Focus Schizophrenia in the Markets The equity markets seem to be reflecting the fear of recession, or even global slump. Even though we are hopeful that these fears are overdone, we cannot say that they are ridiculous. Quite apart from... 21st September 2001 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Half-hearted, but welcome Today’s 25bp cut in interest rates from the Bank of England looks a bit like a compromise between those MPC members anxious to participate in the global loosening of policy kicked off by the Fed... 18th September 2001 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Fed leads the way for others to follow Today’s intra-meeting cut in US interest rates illustrates the Fed’s determination to do everything it can to help financial markets in the wake of last week’s events. Although the stock market might... 17th September 2001 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Terrorist attacks on the US – The Economic and Financial Effects Yesterday’s events in the United States are so horrific, and so important on both a human and a political scale that we may say that America will never be the same again. The human tragedy is such as... 12th September 2001 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Manufacturing is not an island Consensus forecasts that the economy will grow in line with its long run average rate this year appear to be based upon two key conditions: First, that the slowdown on the industrial side of the... 24th July 2001 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Oil price fall to take ¼% off inflation Oil prices have fallen through $24 per barrel for the first time since early April on signs of both weaker demand in response to the economic slowdown and increased supply as Iraq has resumed... 12th July 2001 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The Mansion House Speech & the Euro Last night’s Mansion House Speech by Gordon Brown seems to have put paid to recent speculation of an early assessment of the five economic tests leading to a euro referendum as soon as this Autumn... 21st June 2001 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Inflation & Interest Rates – Sticking to our Guns A succession of stronger economic data releases, coupled with speculation of early entry into the single currency, has prompted a dramatic shift in the markets’ expectations of the future path of... 13th June 2001 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus A Wolf in Sheep’s Clothing? Key policy issues in Labour’s second term Markets and business have approached the prospect of a second Labour term in Government in relaxed mood. This no doubt reflects the generally market friendly policies of the first term, coupled with... 8th June 2001 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Forecast change: 4.5% interest rates by year-end Clients of Capital Economics will know that we have been well ahead of consensus forecasts in predicting lower official interest rates in the UK this year. We first forecast that the Bank of England’s... 10th May 2001 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Windfalls – what happened last time? Three previously mutually owned organisations – Friends Provident, Scottish Provident, and Scottish Life – have announced that, subject to members’ approval, they are to lose their mutual status... 4th May 2001 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Foot & Mouth – The Economic Impact Around 8% of the UK’s total livestock has already been destroyed as a result of the foot and mouth outbreak. However, the ultimate impact on output in the livestock sector will be proportionately much... 4th May 2001 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Another 1% to Come Today’s ¼ point cut in base rates is proof that, for all the indications that the fundamentals of the UK economy remain in good shape, the MPC is fully aware of the potential impact that a rapid... 5th April 2001 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Rates to fall amidst risks to confidence I believe that the MPC will cut interest rates by 0.25% on Thursday, although, unlike in February, it may not be a unanimous decision. 2nd April 2001 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Inflation is in the Eye of the Beholder The official target measure of inflation, RPIX, is not only running well below target, but is probably seriously exaggerating true inflationary pressures. 7th March 2001 · 1 min read
