UK Economics Focus The house price earnings ratio is a good measure of housing valuations – and it is signalling danger. We have long argued that houses are over-valued, based on evidence from the house-price earnings ratio (HPE). But some commentators argue that the HPE is no longer a credible leading indicator of... 20th June 2002 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The Furore over Q1 GDP – Is Oil the Answer? The Q1 GDP figures display a clear disparity between the nominal figures, which show a healthy 1.3% rise in the first three months, and the real figures, which imply that output stagnated over the... 31st May 2002 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2002: A Gamble on the Economy - and the NHS The leaks about this year’s budget were half right. The increases in spending are indeed enormous, concentrated on the NHS, but the tax rises on individuals are smaller than we had been led to believe... 17th April 2002 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus House prices – the alarm bells are ringing House prices are currently rising by between 14% and 16% a year, giving rise to fears of a looming crash. A key indicator of whether or not house prices are sustainable is their relationship to... 12th April 2002 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Budget 2002 Preview In contrast to his previous five Budgets, Mr Brown will present his sixth against a deteriorating fiscal background. Coupled with the pressures to maintain strong spending growth in key public... 28th March 2002 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus The debt threat – a time bomb ticking? Few domestic economic issues have prompted as much concern recently as the level of household debt. Even the policymakers themselves have worried that, in cutting interest rates to very low levels to... 11th March 2002 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Why has the current account deficit not taken off? Last year’s performance of the current account was much better than the consensus forecast, despite the fact this forecast was based on what turned out to be a much too optimistic world growth picture... 22nd January 2002 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Interest rate expectations too pessimistic again Markets have begun the new year with their traditional pessimism towards interest rates. Having dropped to levels perceived to be “abnormally low” last year, rates are now expected to move quickly... 9th January 2002 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Deflation Ahead? November’s drop in RPIX inflation to its equal lowest ever level was notable enough, but in our view the number is just the starting point for some much more dramatic falls ahead. 14th December 2001 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Has the downturn killed the New Economy? Until recently, medium-term expectations for the economy have incorporated the hope that the UK would at some point exhibit some of structural improvements in performance apparently evident in the US... 4th December 2001 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Pre-Budget Report 2001 This is a slightly more generous package than we had anticipated, but not nearly as generous as the sharp upward revisions in the forecasts for borrowing over the next several years might suggest... 27th November 2001 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Have Houses Been a Good Buy? The recent burst of rapid house price inflation has reinforced the perception that investing in housing is a sure-fire winner. Historically, though, the notion of dramatic increases in personal wealth... 31st October 2001 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Fiscal Fears Overdone The twin prospects of war and economic weakness in the wake of the terrorist attacks on America have prompted concerns over the fiscal outlook in the UK. Speculation has increased that the Government... 5th October 2001 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus More Cuts to Come Today’s 25bps cut in interest rates is not unexpected as it completes unfinished business from the previous inter-meeting cut. This is the second shoe to drop. 4th October 2001 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Blair and the Euro – A Serious Case of Mission Creep? Today’s press is full of the idea that the Prime Minster is set to push ahead with plans for a euro referendum. This is so much at odds with our own assessment, notably in our last Quarterly Review... 3rd October 2001 · 1 min read
