UK Commercial Property Focus What is the outlook for leisure property returns? Over the next four to five years, we expect leisure total returns to average about 6% per year. That is lower than the returns we expect in the office and industrial sectors (both 7% per year) and... 14th October 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Beyond austerity: the long-run outlook for high street shops With the influence of supermarkets and internet retailing likely to grow, we think that a downward trend in real high street shop rents is possible over the long run, with real rents falling by 1% to... 13th September 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Effect of consumer austerity on high street shops investment We think that consumer spending will struggle to grow at all for at least the next two to three years. Taking the period 2010-14 as a whole, this will result in average total returns for high street... 23rd August 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Property in the new Parliament At the time of the 2015 election, we expect commercial property prices to be more or less unchanged from their current levels. Yet despite the low interest rate environment, the outlook for... 12th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Does the yield curve foreshadow property performance? Our analysis suggests that the UK government bond yield curve has no predictive power for commercial property yields. The yield curve is potentially useful as a tool for forecasting rents, although it... 8th July 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Will real UK commercial property rental values stay flat? Over the next 20 to 30 years, in contrast with the flat trend that has been experienced since the 1950s, we think that real UK commercial property rental values could rise slightly. As a guide, our... 1st June 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Will the retail sector again outperform following recession? Over the next three years, retail property is set to deliver average real capital gains of around 1% per year (roughly 3% nominal), lower than the figures of around 3% (5% nominal) in the industrial... 7th April 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Standard industrials & distribution warehouses: the outlook Over the next 4-5 years, driven by the recovery in the UK’s manufacturing sector, standard industrial annual total returns could average 10% to 11%. That would be higher than prospective returns from... 19th February 2010 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Which sector has the best long-term rental value prospects? The current downturn in the commercial property rental values is not over yet. However, taking the next decade as a whole, our view is that, as has been the case historically, retail rental values... 14th December 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Total returns in 2010: how good could they get? The sharp rebound in investor sentiment and the sheer weight of equity poised to (re-)enter the market make it plausible that commercial property total returns could hit 15% next year. 28th September 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus The effect of voids on landlords' income during a downturn The current commercial property occupier market downturn could run for another 12-18 months, and we think that, depending on the sector, rising voids over that period may take up to 5% off a typical... 15th July 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus The effects of structural lease changes on landlords’ income Structural changes to commercial property leases in the UK (e.g. more break clauses) have meant that landlords’ incomes are now more exposed to market forces than they once were. On the basis of the... 29th May 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus What do recent policy initiatives mean for property? In our view, neither Government intervention in the banking sector nor quantitative easing (QE) is likely to alter the subdued outlook for commercial property lending. Not only will gross new lending... 30th March 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Is the medium-term outlook for hotels still relatively favourable? We continue to believe that IPD hotel total returns will be worse than the all-property average in 2009. However, in recognition of the changed economic circumstances, by contrast with what we... 13th March 2009 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Property in business: a waste of space? How things look now Since the publication of our original Waste of Space report in 2002, we estimate that firms in the UK have taken action that has resulted in annual property-related cost savings of about 1% of GDP... 30th October 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Our economic forecast revisions: implications for property On the basis of the downgrades to our views on the macroeconomic outlook, peak to trough falls in all-property capital values of about 40% now seem likely. That would be a bigger drop than the... 22nd October 2008 · 1 min read
