Global Economics Focus Why is property so often the source of trouble? It is now ten years since the property-induced global financial crisis and house prices in many countries are rising rapidly again. So now seems like a good time to assess whether property... 2nd August 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus A weaker outlook for shopping centres The evidence suggests that the headwinds currently buffeting the retail sector are taking a larger toll on shopping centres than on other types of retail property. As a result, and in contrast to the... 21st June 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Is investment activity about to plateau? Whether thinking about the macroeconomic context, relative pricing, or investor sentiment – it is difficult to make a case that investment activity will be notably stronger or weaker than in 2017... 15th January 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Which sectors offer the best return prospects? High rents and valuations mean that the prospects for total returns in London and South East offices look pretty weak. By contrast, high income returns and brighter rental stories should underpin a... 30th November 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Is industrial rental growth due an upgrade? Unlike the rest of the commercial property market, rental value growth in the industrial sector has recently regained fresh momentum. There are also no signs that demand is set to ease, or that... 13th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Has the sustainable level of London office rents risen? Office rents in central London have never been higher. Even in real (inflation-adjusted) terms, they are well above the levels which appear to have been sustainable in the past. However, since the... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Have the threats to commercial property been overstated? The vote to leave the EU has polarised opinions about the outlook for commercial property. But we think there are good reasons to be optimistic. The monetary policy response to the vote has helped... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Will Birmingham property continue to outperform? The UK’s decision to leave the EU has weakened the economic outlook for the euro-zone and increased expectations that the ECB will keep monetary policy looser for longer. While slower economic growth... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Could the market talk itself into a correction? Our central view is that the outlook for commercial property is healthier than the recent gloomy headlines would suggest. Nevertheless, there is a latent risk that negative sentiment itself could... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Will London be the catalyst for the next property correction? Overpricing is a more salient concern for London’s property markets than at the national level. However, there are cyclical and structural factors that currently support more aggressive pricing in the... 1st March 2016 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus How big a threat is Brexit to UK property markets? The City of London is the part of the property market with most to lose if the UK electorate votes to leave the EU. Yet even there, the potential for services exports to fast-growing emerging markets... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus How big is the safe-haven premium for London property? Gauging the impact of safe-haven demand on the pricing of Central London property is not easy and any estimates carry sizeable health warnings. But we think it is plausible that Central London office... 8th May 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Are property values within sight of their peak? A comparison with previous upswings suggests that commercial property capital values will peak within the next six months. Yet property is not obviously overvalued while occupier fundamentals are both... 9th April 2015 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Can rental growth take up the baton? The drop in yields has been such a crucial driver of commercial property capital values over the past year or so, that rental growth will only partially fill the void, if as we expect, yields find a... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Are supermarket property returns past their best? Over the past 30-35 years, supermarket property total returns have averaged more than 11% p.a., better than any of the other main segments. However, this long period of outperformance has now left... 14th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus How good are the prospects for London office rents? Occupier demand in London’s City and West End office markets has exceeded our expectations in recent quarters. And the outlook for demand is also positive. This will eventually prompt a supply... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
