UK Commercial Property Focus Can rental growth take up the baton? The drop in yields has been such a crucial driver of commercial property capital values over the past year or so, that rental growth will only partially fill the void, if as we expect, yields find a... 26th November 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Are supermarket property returns past their best? Over the past 30-35 years, supermarket property total returns have averaged more than 11% p.a., better than any of the other main segments. However, this long period of outperformance has now left... 14th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus How good are the prospects for London office rents? Occupier demand in London’s City and West End office markets has exceeded our expectations in recent quarters. And the outlook for demand is also positive. This will eventually prompt a supply... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Four reasons to be positive about property lending prospects Data from the Bank of England show that banks and building societies are continuing to scale back their exposure to the property sector at a rapid rate. But a growing body of survey and anecdotal... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus How far and fast might non-prime capital values rise? As we had been anticipating, non-prime property has started to outperform prime. Our forecast is that average non-prime capital values rise by 10% this year and about 6% in 2015. That will be stronger... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Is Manchester property a good bet? Growing numbers of investors appear to be looking beyond London and other prime markets, and for many Manchester seems to be a key target. Our top-down analysis suggests that the prospects for rents... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Rising confidence will accelerate property’s recovery Occupier confidence has finally taken a turn for the better. We think that this will accelerate the recovery in commercial property rents and prices. The consensus view is that IPD all-property... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Is the revival of hotel investment a sign of better times ahead? To us, the recent surge in hotel deals is not indicative of any sharp, sector-specific improvement in the underlying demand drivers. Instead, investors simply seem to have been making opportunistic... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Shopping centres: will the out-of-town/in-town gap get wider? The divergence between out-of-town and in-town shopping centre capital values is not over yet. We suspect that, over the next three years, stronger growth in rental values will deliver further gains... 6th June 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus South East offices: poised to outperform? Central London aside, weak economic growth and fragile business confidence are acting as a drag on occupier demand, pushing back a recovery in commercial property markets. South East offices will not... 12th April 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can the UK build its way to a recovery? The construction sector has endured a terrible recession, with double-digit declines in output and employment. In theory, there is scope for a sharp comeback. But given the squeeze on credit and... 7th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus How strong is the case for distribution warehouses? We are wary of claims that changes in the nation’s shopping habits will drive a large, positive step-shift in the relative performance of distribution warehouses. Nevertheless, the combination of... 6th March 2013 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus When will the commercial property deleveraging end? Lenders have already made substantial progress in reducing the stock of commercial property loans on their books. But there is more to do and net lending flows are likely to remain negative for some... 15th February 2013 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2012: More of the same There were few surprises in this Autumn Statement, which simply represented a continuation of the existing strategy. The Statement will do little to get the economy out of its current malaise and a... 5th December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus The outlook for 2013: a return to rising capital values? Our sense is that investor sentiment has improved in recent months and some are now starting to look ahead to the next commercial property recovery. Accordingly, although the current downturn is not... 3rd December 2012 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2012 Preview The Chancellor remains hemmed in by the fiscal position. Indeed, he may well have to choose between introducing even more austerity in the Autumn Statement and letting at least one of his fiscal rules... 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
