Latin America Economics Update What next for the Chilean peso? While there is likely to be more turbulence ahead for the Chilean peso, the big falls are probably behind us. Indeed, with the central bank intervening and copper prices likely to rise, we think it’s... 4th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Could Venezuela dollarise successfully? Comments by Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro suggest that the government considers dollarisation as an option to tackle hyperinflation. If implemented, this would probably bring inflation down... 28th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Growth in Mexico: Digging into the details Revised GDP figures have, again, shown Mexico as one of the worst-performing large EMs. But a closer look at the data underlines the huge variation within the country, which includes both pockets of... 27th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: a closer look at debt restructuring President-elect Alberto Fernández’s plan to resolve Argentina’s debt crisis by growing the economy is not a realistic option. We think that a large debt write-down within a few years is inevitable... 22nd November 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile GDP picks up in Q3, Q4 likely to contract While GDP growth picked up in Q3, activity data for September indicates that the economy had already slowed significantly prior to the protests beginning. GDP is likely to contract in Q4. That said... 18th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Cuts continue, but markets have gone too far After loosening policy again yesterday, Mexican policymakers will probably cut rates by another 75bp over the coming six months. Given that the US loosening cycle now seems to be at an end, market... 15th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s protests: growing risk of longer disruption The sharp fall in the Chilean peso today amid widespread strikes will push up inflation although, with the central bank focused more on the hit to the economy, further interest rate cuts are still... 12th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru cuts rates, strikes neutral tone The statement accompanying yesterday’s decision by Peru’s central bank to cut interest rates made it clear that this did not mark the beginning of an easing cycle. And with inflation and economic... 8th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of the Chilean protests There is a good chance that protests caused GDP to contract in Q4. While we expect growth to strengthen by next year, the weak starting point from Q4 has prompted us to revise down our 2020 growth... 7th November 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Five points on Brazil’s fiscal reform package The fiscal package presented to Brazil’s congress yesterday shows that the government is not resting on its laurels after its successful pension reform. However, the good news on fiscal reform already... 6th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian household spending set to weaken Colombia’s economic recovery since 2017 has been in large part due to strength in private consumption, but we think it will likely slow in the coming quarters. This is one reason why our 2020 growth... 4th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: One more cut and done The statement accompanying last night’s Copom meeting gave a clear signal that there will be just one more 50bp interest rate cut in the current cycle (to 4.50%), which should temper expectations in... 31st October 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update A closer look at Ecuador’s fiscal challenges Ecuador’s government has successfully stabilised the debt-to-GDP ratio, and it remains committed to IMF plans to cut the public debt ratio to just 30% of GDP. But the president’s climbdown in the face... 29th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: First thoughts following Fernández win There is still a lot of uncertainty following Alberto Fernández’s widely-expected victory in Argentina’s presidential election, but one point we would stress is that a large debt write-down will... 28th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile cuts rates, drops heavy hints for more easing Chilean policymakers’ decision to cut their key interest rate by 25bp yesterday and the dovish tone of the accompanying statement supports our view that the easing cycle has further to run. We... 24th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What would a Fernández win mean for Argentina? Left-wing Peronist Alberto Fernández is widely expected to win Sunday’s presidential election, and we think that his tenure would be marked by more accommodative policy, persistently high inflation... 23rd October 2019 · 4 mins read
