Latin America Economics Update Rout in Argentine markets to trigger policy response Argentine policymakers are likely to have been spooked by the rout in local markets in recent days, and the experience of the past few weeks suggests that they will be tempted to respond with more... 25th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine policymakers beginning to panic The decision by Argentina’s central bank to limit the extent to which the nominal exchange rate will be allowed to weaken this year raises the risk that the peso becomes overvalued. Meanwhile, the... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCRA tightening a double-edged sword for the ARS The Argentine central bank’s pledges to keep monetary policy tighter for longer have helped to stave off a run on the currency in recent weeks. But by keeping the economy weak ahead of October’s... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican oil production likely to fall further The best that Mexico’s state-owned oil company, Pemex, can hope for in the coming years is a slower pace of decline in crude production. Many of its shallow oil fields are maturing and the government... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s central bank signals lower for longer The statement accompanying the Chilean central bank’s decision to hold its policy rate at 3.00% on Friday night signalled that rates are likely to stay on hold for longer than they had previously... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What’s behind the weakness in Brazilian industry? Part of the recent weakness in Brazilian industry can be pinned on softer external demand, particularly from Argentina. But the sector has also been affected by temporary factors which have probably... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s central bank pledges continuity The wording of last night’s Brazilian monetary policy statement provides further evidence that the appointment of new governor Roberto Campos Neto won’t cause much of a change to monetary policy. With... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: current account concerns growing Colombia’s current account deficit is widening, making the recovery vulnerable to a deterioration in global risk appetite that we expect later this year. The country’s weak external position is likely... 18th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Venezuela: US sanctions starting to bite Venezuela’s oil exports have dropped sharply following the imposition of US sanctions on PDVSA last month, and further falls are likely in the coming months. This will make it increasingly difficult... 11th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of Amlo’s first 100 days Sunday marks Andrés Manuel López’s Obrador’s (Amlo’s) first 100 days as Mexico’s president, and some of his unorthodox policies appear to have resulted in a 50-60bp risk premium on sovereign debt... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico’s core inflation concerns overdone The Mexican central bank’s recently released Q1 Inflation Report reiterated concerns about sticky core inflation. But we think these worries are overdone, and core inflation should fall back in the... 5th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Ecopetrol sale won’t solve fiscal problems A partial sale of Colombia’s state-owned oil company, Ecopetrol, now appears likely and should limit the scale of fiscal austerity, particularly in 2020. But Colombia is yet to fully adjust to low oil... 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil, soybeans and the trade war Brazil would be the biggest loser if China increases its imports of US soybeans as part of a trade deal. But the overall impact on Brazil’s export revenues and overall GDP growth would probably be... 25th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Explaining the weakness in Mexican industry The slump in Mexican industry late last year largely reflects domestic problems, particularly in the mining sector. But with the US economy now coming off the boil, the external environment will be an... 25th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Unpacking the Pemex problem The Mexican government’s bailout for Pemex last week is unlikely to solve the company’s fundamental issues, which stem from an extremely heavy tax burden and chronically low productivity. In the... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: pension plan ambitious, but just a starting point The Brazilian government’s pension reform plan unveiled today lives up to high hopes and is likely to sustain the rally in local markets over the coming weeks. But history suggests that the... 20th February 2019 · 1 min read
