Latin America Economics Update Latin America: Counting the cost of lower oil prices The latest fall in oil prices will aggravate Venezuela’s crisis and increase the risk of a sovereign default in Ecuador. Elsewhere, there is likely to be a hit to growth in Mexico and Colombia. And... 9th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What next for the Brazilian real? The Brazilian real has fallen to a record low and, while our central view is that it will recover some lost ground in the second half of the year, it will remain much weaker than most currently... 5th March 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America: the impact of the coronavirus The spread of the coronavirus has prompted us to revise down our forecasts for the global economy. This Update sets out the revisions to our views for Latin America in more detail. Policymakers... 3rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: what to make of the IMF’s latest review The IMF’s (belated) announcement that Argentina’s public debt is “unsustainable” removes any doubt that private bondholders will need to stomach large haircuts in a restructuring. But investors are... 20th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What’s next for Latam dollar bond spreads? Latin American dollar bonds have performed relatively well since fears related to the coronavirus started to weigh on the region’s financial markets. But if commodity prices and currencies in the... 11th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: the implications of central bank independence The Brazilian government’s plans to enshrine full central bank independence in law would help to both keep longer-term inflation expectations low and bring down real interest rates. This adds to the... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: easing cycle over, but rates to stay low The statement accompanying the Brazilian central bank’s meeting last night gave a clear steer that the easing cycle is now over. With growth likely to stay weak and inflation low, we expect that the... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Three key questions on the Buenos Aires debt saga The province of Buenos Aires could feasibly default on a $250mn payment on Wednesday. In this Update, we answer three key questions about the current situation, the possible outcomes for Argentina’s... 3rd February 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Flat again Mexico dodged another technical recession in Q4, we think that the weakness seen in the later months of last year will persist into 2020, causing growth to fall far below consensus expectations. 30th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update What next for Chilean bond yields? We expect that Chile’s central bank will cut interest rates later this year, and that this will push local currency bond yields down over the next 12 months. But with the demands of protestors likely... 29th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Latin America: Key calls for 2020 To mark the new year, our various teams have published a series of key calls notes setting out what to watch for in 2020. This Update wraps up some of our key views for Latin America. 18th December 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chilean fiscal policy: How worried should we be? Protests in Chile will probably result in a shift towards permanently looser fiscal policy. But it would take a long time for the debt ratio to become a concern, so any corresponding rise in bond... 16th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: Easing cycle probably now at an end The statement accompanying the Brazilian central bank’s meeting last night did leave the door open for one more interest rate cut, but on balance we think the easing cycle is at an end. By the same... 12th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: What to watch for as Fernández takes office Alberto Fernández’s government, which takes office today, will soon begin to implement its economic agenda and outline its proposals to resolve the debt crisis. This Update outlines four key things to... 10th December 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Chile holds rates, but cuts still likely in late 2020 The statement accompanying the Chilean central bank’s decision to hold interest rates at 1.75% yesterday signalled that policy rates will be left unchanged over Q1, but we still think it’s most likely... 5th December 2019 · 3 mins read
