Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan adds to its armoury Today’s announcement that the Bank of Japan is willing to provide subordinated loans to banks continues the drip-feed of unconventional policy measures it has introduced since October. The latest... 17th March 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Is Japan still a surplus country? We expect Japan to record a deficit this year both on trade in goods and services and on the overall current account balance. This sharp turnaround (from large surpluses in 2007) reflects the double... 9th March 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update A tiny silver lining in Japan’s trade data January’s data all but guarantee that collapsing exports will make another large negative contribution to Japan’s GDP in the first quarter. However, imports have also started to drop back, which means... 25th February 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan positioning for a V-shaped recovery We expect next Monday’s preliminary data to show that the Japanese economy contracted by around 3.5% q/q in the fourth quarter of last year (an annualised rate of 15%). However, Japan may well then... 9th February 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan has a lot more work to do The Bank of Japan’s modest programme of asset purchases is unlikely to be the last word, especially given the deterioration in economic and financial conditions acknowledged today in its own forecasts... 22nd January 2009 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan cuts rates to near zero, will buy CP outright The Bank of Japan effectively reverted to a zero interest rate policy today and edged towards quantitative easing, although the embrace of QE is still half-hearted. We are certainly not impressed by... 19th December 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japanese Tankan could have been a lot worse The Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey of business conditions was not quite as bad as we had feared, but we may just have been a quarter early. The one consolation is that Japan is not alone – other major... 15th December 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Brace for an awful Tankan We expect the headline numbers from the Bank of Japan’s quarterly “Tankan” survey for December, released next Monday, to be even worse than the consensus. Our forecast for the large manufacturers’... 10th December 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan on hold – but not for much longer As widely anticipated, the Bank of Japan left policy rates unchanged today. However, the prospect of outright declines in both economic activity and prices next year suggests that rates are heading... 21st November 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan still not finished cutting rates The Bank of Japan’s willingness to cut interest rates even further from already exceptionally low levels, combined with the prospect of outright declines in both economic activity and prices, suggests... 31st October 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update What does the global slowdown mean for Japan? Japan’s seasonally adjusted trade deficit of ¥208 billion in August reported earlier in the week – the first monthly deficit since the early 1980s – has increased concerns about the fallout from the... 17th October 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tankan to show Japanese economy still relatively healthy We believe that the Bank of Japan’s quarterly “Tankan” survey for September, due next Wednesday, will show that business conditions have held up rather better than the consensus expects. Indeed, the... 24th September 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Tankan shows Japan’s economy slowing, not collapsing The Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey of business conditions was disappointing but not disastrous. The detail contained some reassuring news with regard to financial conditions and the labour market. 1st September 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update A look ahead to Japan’s Q2 GDP data The first estimate of Japan’s second quarter GDP will be released, not very auspiciously, on the 13th (next Wednesday). We expect this to show an outright fall of around 0.3% q/q, although a much... 6th August 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan’s manufacturing recession to be short and shallow The 2.0% m/m decline in Japanese industrial production in June confirms that output has now fallen for two successive quarters. This was at least widely expected: the consensus was for a fall of 1.7%... 30th July 2008 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Bank of Japan on hold until global backdrop improves On their own, the Bank of Japan’s revised economic forecasts are still consistent with our view that interest rates could be raised again by the end of the year. Nonetheless, the deteriorating global... 15th July 2008 · 1 min read
