Global Markets Update Our key calls for 2013 We expect 2013 to be another year of weak growth, low inflation and further divergence between the US and other advanced economies. The biggest problems will continue to be in the euro-zone, where the... 17th December 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the Fed sowing the seeds of the next financial crisis? The Fed’s policy stance may breathe some more life into the US economy in coming years. But it could also sow the seeds of the next financial crisis by inflating new asset bubbles. 13th December 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The return of the yen carry trade? Expectations that the yen is about to fall sharply could increase the attractiveness of “carry trades” and hence become self-fulfilling. However, with global interest rates likely to remain low and... 4th December 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How will Basel III affect the demand for gold? There is still widespread confusion and uncertainty over the impact that the Basel III regulations might have on the demand for gold. Gold is an “asset” rather than “capital” and therefore... 28th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Too soon to call the major turn in the yen? Next month’s elections in Japan are unlikely to mark the major shift towards yen weakness that many now anticipate. To be clear, in the next 3-5 years the yen probably will fall sharply. After all... 26th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are the best days for US corporate bonds behind us? There are signs that the prolonged contraction in US corporate bond spreads may be drawing to a close. If so, the stock market could struggle to make headway. 22nd November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What does the future hold for JGBs? A steepening of the yield curve in Japan indicates that investors have become more concerned about the very long-run prospects for bonds. While we think such fears are justified, we doubt they will... 20th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The global fall-out from Middle East tensions The escalation of the conflict between Israel and Hamas has contributed to the recent resilience of oil prices and the fragility of equities. The avoidance of a full-scale ground war in Gaza might... 19th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will bondholders’ faith in the Fed be rewarded? Bondholders have not lost faith in the Fed’s commitment to low and stable inflation. But that does not mean they should expect healthy returns. 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Safe haven demand to support the yen through 2013 Expectations of more aggressive monetary easing from the Bank of Japan have weakened the yen, even though there is already little practical difference between its stance and that of the Fed. On... 15th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Stock market consequences of slower growth in the BRICs Slower growth in the BRIC economies makes it less likely that their stock markets will outperform those of the major developed economies again after a couple of disappointing years. 13th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How are market prospects shaping up after the US elections? The initially limited market reaction to the re-election of President Obama made sense because this was the outcome that had looked most likely. In any event, economic prospects might not have been... 7th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the UK stock market? We expect a weak economy and a partial break-up of EMU to weigh on UK equities through the end of next year – our forecast is that the FTSE 100 will end 2013 around the 5,000 mark. Although we are... 6th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Markets may fear uncertainty more than they like Romney The conventional wisdom is that investors prefer Republican Presidents, but we would suggest that every election is different. Romney’s plans would tax equities more favourably and lighten the burden... 5th November 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What does the future hold for US Treasuries? Although we think the yield on 10-year Treasuries will fall back soon from almost its highest level in five months, the medium-term prospects for bonds are far from rosy. Indeed, we think the average... 19th October 2012 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Don't bank on stock market gains once earnings start to fall The US Q2 earnings season kicks off today. The news is likely to be downbeat, with the annual growth rate of profits reportedly expected to be negative for the first time since 2009. In recent months... 9th October 2012 · 1 min read
