Global Markets Update Yen’s recovery likely to be temporary There are many factors behind the recent partial recovery in the yen and associated weakness in the Nikkei, but perhaps the most important is fading expectations of more aggressive monetary easing by... 12th August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will forward guidance provide a major boost to Gilts? The UK MPC’s "forward guidance" had little initial impact on Gilts on Wednesday but we still think it will help them to outperform US Treasuries over time. That being said, we do not expect the 10... 7th August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Stock market implications of capitalising intellectual property The recent change to the accounting treatment of some types of "intellectual property products" in the US national income and product accounts has resulted in a decline in the price/earnings ratio of... 6th August 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The floodgates start to close Net capital inflows into emerging markets (EMs) were significantly negative in June as investors fretted about a change in the Fed’s monetary policy. Although the selling continued in the early part... 23rd July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Monetary policy to remain loose even with Fed tapering Our research has consistently emphasised that monetary conditions in the major advanced economies are likely to remain exceptionally loose for several years even after the US Fed ends its asset... 16th July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Some of our best non-consensus calls (and a few lemons) We are often asked for examples of bold non-consensus calls that have been proved right. This Update provides a selection from the last few months across a range of our services. The publications... 15th July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Bernanke bashing illustrates limits of “forward guidance” Many of the criticisms of the US Fed’s recent communications on monetary policy are, in our view, unfair. However, the difficulty that the media and markets have found in drawing clear conclusions... 12th July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Too soon to write off the pound The recent weakness in the pound against the US dollar has produced the usual flurry of headlines about an imminent sterling crisis. However, while the relative prospects for monetary policy in the US... 8th July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the Treasury market braced for future Fed tightening? We think the US federal funds rate will have been raised to about 4% by the end of 2017. However, based on a decomposition of the Treasury yield curve, it looks like the bond market is more or less... 2nd July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update A more cautious view on gold The slump in the price of gold to less than $1,200 per ounce on Friday forced us to take a more cautious view of the prospects for the precious metal. Nonetheless, our revised forecasts assume a bit... 1st July 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How far can the Bank of Japan's QE replace the Fed's? Japanese investors are perhaps more likely to follow global trends than to lead them, but the Bank of Japan will help keep global monetary conditions loose even when the Fed starts to taper QE3. 27th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Can bond yields elsewhere decouple from the US? There has not been much differentiation between bond markets during the recent US-led sell-off. But over time we expect local economic conditions and domestic monetary policy to play a larger role... 25th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Bond market lessons from the early 1950s The recent surge in long-term US Treasury yields will certainly have raised a few eyebrows. However, if the Fed’s forthcoming approach to unwinding unconventional monetary policy stimulus bears any... 24th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update New market forecasts In the light of the changing prospects for US monetary policy and recent improvements in the outlook for the advanced economies, we are revising our bond yield forecasts higher. However, we continue... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the worst soon be over for emerging market equities? Emerging market equities have come under further pressure today after last night’s FOMC statement. Although the prospect of a tapering of the US central bank’s quantitative easing could continue to... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Beating a retreat Recent data suggest that net capital inflows into emerging markets (EMs) fell significantly in May and in the first half of June amid renewed concerns about a potential tapering of the Fed’s asset... 18th June 2013 · 1 min read
