Global Markets Update New market forecasts In the light of the changing prospects for US monetary policy and recent improvements in the outlook for the advanced economies, we are revising our bond yield forecasts higher. However, we continue... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the worst soon be over for emerging market equities? Emerging market equities have come under further pressure today after last night’s FOMC statement. Although the prospect of a tapering of the US central bank’s quantitative easing could continue to... 20th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Beating a retreat Recent data suggest that net capital inflows into emerging markets (EMs) fell significantly in May and in the first half of June amid renewed concerns about a potential tapering of the Fed’s asset... 18th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Making sense of the market turmoil We will be reviewing all our key market forecasts in the coming days, but recent developments have underlined several of the global and regional themes that we have been stressing for some time. 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What's behind the rebound in the yen? The rebound in the yen and associated weakness in Japanese equities reflect fears about the outlooks for monetary policy in both Japan and the US. However, these fears look increasingly overdone. 13th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Who will fill the Fed’s shoes when it tapers QE3? We expect the Fed to start tapering its asset purchases around September 2013 and halt them in H1 2014. Given the large amount of Treasuries – not to mention mortgage-backed securities – the central... 12th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Emerging market currencies to remain under pressure Emerging market currencies have generally been hit hard over the past month, with sentiment further souring in the wake of the latest US FOMC minutes. We think many will remain under pressure this... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the Nikkei? The markets’ honeymoon with the Abe government has ended, but it seems premature to consider filing for divorce. Indeed, the worst of the correction in the Nikkei may soon be over. 5th June 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Falling "narrow" profit share a warning sign for US equities The first estimate of Q1 US corporate profits published yesterday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis is another warning sign that the second half of 2013 may be much tougher for equities than the... 31st May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is this the start of a sustained rise in bond yields? The recent surges in the yields of US Treasury and Japanese government bonds have led some to ask whether this might be the beginning of a prolonged bear market. Yields should of course rebound to... 29th May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update EM equities set to underperform further Despite the global rally over most of the past month, emerging market equities have continued to underperform developed market equities. We expect this pattern to persist. 28th May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Boost to Nikkei from weaker yen has run its course Today’s slump is not necessarily the end of the bull market in Japanese equities, but the next few months will be much harder going. We continue to expect the Nikkei to fall further, probably below 13... 23rd May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How long can the current equity rally last? Our view from the outset has been that 2013 would be a year of two halves for risky assets, with a strong start eventually giving way to renewed weakness. In the event, while we were correct to be... 20th May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for EM local currency government bonds? The prospect of an extended period of loose monetary policy facilitated by low inflation should provide ongoing support to many emerging market (EM) local currency government bonds. However, we expect... 14th May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What’s behind the surge in JGB yields? The jump in the yields of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) in the last few days probably reflects a confluence of many factors, including speculation that domestic institutions are set to step up... 14th May 2013 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why QE helps equities more than commodities There are three main reasons why further monetary stimulus, including quantitative easing (QE), is likely to benefit equities more than it benefits the prices of industrial commodities, including... 13th May 2013 · 1 min read
