Global Economics Focus Do elections really matter for the economy? The economic influence of elections is often overstated. They have only tended to have significant effects if governments have embarked on big structural reforms, interfered with monetary policy or... 7th December 2023 · 25 mins read
Global Economics Focus Government debt sustainability back under the spotlight Shifts in the long-term outlook for interest rates relative to GDP growth have left the fiscal position in most developed economies looking more precarious. Unless governments manage to reduce their... 21st November 2023 · 23 mins read
Global Economics Focus The shape of the fractured world economy in 2024 Our expanded Global Fracturing database allows clients to analyse how geopolitical pressures are reshaping global economic and financial activity. Here, we highlight some of the key findings. 16th November 2023 · 10 mins read
Global Economics Focus Chapter 4: Financial market implications Higher real and nominal Treasury yields in 2030, relative to the past decade, are one reason why we expect investors to be demanding a greater real return from risky assets in 2030 than they are now. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Focus Chapter 3: Where will inflation (and nominal rates) settle? Why we expect a more volatile inflation outlook in the coming years, and how central banks are likely to respond in setting nominal rates in this new normal. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Focus Chapter 2: How will the savings/investment balance affect r*? Why savings and investment incentives will become better aligned in the next decade than over the past 20 years, causing r* to rise. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Focus Chapter 1: Will stronger potential growth boost r*? Examining how the drivers that have been pulling down equilibrium rates are fading, and the strengthening forces that will push rates higher in the coming decade. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Focus Introduction and framework The analytical framework for our r* research, where equilibrium interest rates are determined by the potential rate of GDP growth and other factors which influence the desire to save or invest. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Global Economics Focus r* and the end of the ultra-low rates era: executive summary Highlighting the key takeaways from our in-depth new analysis on equilibrium real interest rates in the post-pandemic global economy. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Global Markets Focus How worried should we be about the Treasury sell-off? The government bond sell-off over the past three months raises uncomfortable questions around the risks of financial instability and the outlook for fiscal policy. This note takes stock of what has... 6th October 2023 · 14 mins read
Global Economics Focus Is corporate greed to blame for high inflation? The surge in inflation in advanced economies has not been driven by a widening of firms’ profit margins. However, the fact that firms have been able to maintain profit margins in the face of rising... 29th June 2023 · 23 mins read
Global Economics Focus Introducing our new financial conditions indices (FCIs) We have revamped our financial conditions indices (FCIs) for DM economies. This document sets out a framework for analysing financial conditions, explains our methodology, presents and interprets our... 18th April 2023 · 20 mins read
Global Economics Focus The future wage-price relationship: good, bad or ugly? Inflation is now being driven by wage growth rather than just the temporary influence of energy effects and goods shortages, raising fears that central banks will be forced to engineer sharp increases... 30th March 2023 · 20 mins read
Global Economics Focus Most of the monetary hit is yet to be felt We think that most – perhaps two thirds – of the drag on activity from tighter monetary policy in advanced economies is still to come through in 2023. So, despite some surprisingly resilient data... 7th March 2023 · 26 mins read
Global Economics Focus Risks from the ‘shadow banking’ sector As things stand, we think it is unlikely that non-bank financial intermediaries (NBFIs) would trigger a major financial crisis comparable to the Global Financial Crisis. The biggest risks relate to... 15th February 2023 · 26 mins read
