Global Economics Focus Fracturing in the Age of Trump The global geopolitical map could have been redrawn by the end of Donald Trump’s second term. Some form of rapprochement between the US and China is conceivable in the next few years, as is a... 2nd September 2025 · 38 mins read
Japan Economics Focus Japan won’t experience a fiscal crisis anytime soon Most of the recent increase in long-term bond yields appears to have been driven by higher expectations for short-term interest rates as well as reduced demand from traditional investors in long-dated... 30th July 2025 · 19 mins read
Global Economics Focus The causes of fiscal crises and their economic impact History shows that there are no debt or deficit thresholds beyond which a fiscal crisis is inevitable. Rather, crises stem from a mix of high debt, poor debt dynamics, and weak fiscal credibility... 24th July 2025 · 26 mins read
Global Economics Focus What do tariffs mean for global trade? We think Trump’s tariffs will cause real goods trade to fall by around 1% in the next two years, both by introducing frictions into the trading system and by causing global demand to weaken. But a lot... 3rd July 2025 · 18 mins read
US Economics Focus Risk of US fiscal crisis rising The Federal debt is undoubtedly on an unsustainable path. The debt burden is already close to 100% of GDP and, with the budget deficit likely to remain close to 6% of GDP for the foreseeable future... 9th June 2025 · 20 mins read
Global Economics Focus CBDCs: evolution, not revolution Many central banks, especially in DMs, appear unconvinced about the need for retail central bank digital currencies CBDCs (rCBDCs) and so a big revolution in the monetary system seems unlikely. There... 5th June 2025 · 19 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s push for innovation is not lifting productivity China is mounting a push for global technological leadership by deploying industrial policy on a huge scale. Judging by how competitive many Chinese firms now are at the cutting edge, the effort is... 2nd June 2025 · 25 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Europe in a changing world Europe is being buffeted by geopolitical and geoeconomic shifts but, like all things in Europe, the subsequent changes are likely to be slow and deliberate. Europe will “derisk” from China in... 30th May 2025 · 23 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Fiscal stimulus won’t fix Germany’s economy Germany’s historic shift to looser fiscal policy will give the economy a boost over the next couple of years, but we think growth will then slow, deindustrialisation will continue, and real income... 23rd May 2025 · 16 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Euro-zone debt dynamics: no longer core vs periphery Most euro-zone governments look set to continue running large budget deficits in the coming years. This will support aggregate demand and is a key reason why ECB interest rates will stay higher than... 14th May 2025 · 23 mins read
Europe Economics Focus Is the current optimism about Europe justified? There has been an increase in optimism about the EU in recent months as it has been forced to take more responsibility for its own security, has loosened fiscal policy and has benefited from having a... 12th May 2025 · 16 mins read
FX Markets Focus Rumours of the dollar’s demise: still mostly exaggerated? The sharp fall in the dollar over the past three months can for the most part be explained by a rapid reassessment of the outlook for the US economy and financial markets, rather than an imminent... 25th April 2025 · 19 mins read
Global Economics Focus Will tariffs drive a flood of Chinese exports elsewhere? Punitive tariffs have the potential to cause a substantial fall in US imports from China – a 60% tariff, for example, could cut imports from China by about a third over the next two years, with... 15th April 2025 · 20 mins read
FX Markets Focus Trump pushes the dollar through the looking glass; what next? The ongoing fallout across financial markets from President Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcement has resulted in a sharp fall in the dollar and what looks increasingly like a generalised loss of... 15th April 2025 · 19 mins read
China Economics Focus Is China offloading its dollar assets? Available data don’t give a definitive answer to whether sales by Chinese institutions contributed to the recent volatility in the US bond market. But China’s state managers of foreign assets still... 14th April 2025 · 10 mins read
Event Drop-In: Could a ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ fix the global trading system? 27th March 2025, 3:00PM GMT There’s no shortage of proposals for fixing global trade imbalances – not least a ‘Mar-a-Lago Accord’ suggested by the new head of Donald Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers.
