Europe Economics Weekly Bail-out talks are the next key hurdle for Greece The formation of a coalition Government headed by New Democracy has reduced the chances of Greece exiting the euro-zone imminently. But the political situation remains precarious and the Government’s... 25th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What’s left in the pot? Our prediction last week that market optimism towards the Spanish banking bail-out would be short-lived was borne out more quickly and decisively than even we had anticipated. Even by the standards of... 18th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Markets' optimism to prove short lived Growing speculation that Spain may be about to gain a banking sector bail-out with limited conditionality has raised expectations that euro-zone policymakers are beginning to take a more flexible... 11th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Are we too optimistic on the euro? Recent developments in the euro-zone have raised the question of whether our central scenario of a limited form of currency union break-up - involving the departure of Greece and one or two of the... 4th June 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Growth plans look futile as German activity falls European policymakers focused again last week on the need for growth in the region, with Wednesday’s informal EU summit ending in pledges to speed up structural reforms, strengthen job creation and... 28th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The exit path becomes clearer Developments last week shed more light on the course of events which could culminate in the exit of Greece from the euro-zone. The failure of the political parties to form a coalition or even appoint... 21st May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Has Greece already crossed the Rubicon? Political deadlock in Greece has reignited fears it could be on cusp of a euro-zone exit. The most likely outcome of another election is a victory for the pro-bail-out New Democracy and PASOK parties... 14th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Austerity is the best policy Despite weaker survey data, the ECB is in no hurry to sanction further measures to boost euro-zone growth. It feels the existing accommodative policy stance is providing the region with the basic... 7th May 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Growth talk is cheap Last week saw what appeared to be an encouraging outbreak of unity amongst euro-zone policymakers on the need to supplement fiscal austerity with bigger efforts to boost economic growth. But talk is... 30th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly German consumer boom is a myth The recent resilience of the German economy has prompted us to become a little more upbeat regarding its prospects. But notwithstanding the continuing falls in unemployment, we suggest that talk of a... 23rd April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The ECB has limited ammunition Markets last week seized on hints from the ECB that it may restart its bond purchase programme in an attempt to contain Spanish bond yields. But there are clear doubts over whether the ECB has the... 16th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Draghi buries the silver bullet Any lingering hopes that the European Central Bank (ECB) had either already solved the euro-zone crises or would yet come riding to the rescue with much more decisive action were surely put to bed by... 9th April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Bigger firewall is a small step forward The reported plans to increase the size of the euro-zone bail-out fund - hopefully to be agreed at today’s (Friday’s) Eurogroup meeting - provide some encouragement that the policymakers have... 2nd April 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly LTRO sparkle starting to fade Last week brought the strongest signs yet that the post-LTRO bout of optimism is starting to wear off. Hopes that the ECB’s operations would drive a pick-up in the euro-zone economy were dealt a blow... 26th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak labour market underlines divergence with US Labour market data published last week confirmed that, in contrast to their counterparts in the US, euro-zone firms continued to lay off workers at the end of last year. Timelier indicators suggest... 19th March 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Greek deal does not eliminate break-up risks On the face of it, recent developments like the Greek debt restructuring deal and the ECB’s liquidity operations appear to have strongly undermined our view that a limited form of euro-zone break-up... 12th March 2012 · 1 min read
