Europe Economics Weekly A weak end to 2010 On the face of it, recent data suggest that the euro-zone is on track to expand at a pretty healthy pace in Q4. But we suspect that the disruption caused by the bad weather will mean that Q4’s growth... 14th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly The Grand Bargain - bazooka or popgun? Peripheral euro-zone bond yields fell further last week in apparent anticipation of the so-called “Grand Bargain” of policy measures. But the markets’ optimism raises the danger that the package falls... 7th February 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB & rising euro pose new threats Last week’s successful first EFSF bond issue was hailed by some as a strong vote of confidence in the euro-zone. We are not so sure. The rise in Portuguese bond yields back up to the 7% danger level... 31st January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly EFSF plans won't solve the crisis European policymakers’ hopes of preventing the peripheral debt crisis from escalating further are continuing to focus heavily on the role of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). Not only... 24th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly EFSF plans won't solve the crisis European policymakers’ hopes of preventing the peripheral debt crisis from escalating further are continuing to focus heavily on the role of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). Not only... 21st January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB boxes with shadows In adopting a more hawkish tone last week, when core euro-zone inflation is running at just 1.1%, the ECB has increased doubts over its ability to grasp the seriousness of the situation facing the... 17th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Rise in euro-zone inflation to prove short-lived The euro-zone economic data released since Christmas has been fairly encouraging and suggests that, for now at least, the region continues to expand at a pretty healthy pace. But on the face of it... 10th January 2011 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Another tough year ahead We have revised up our near-term forecasts for the euro-zone economy in response to improving global economic prospects and signs that domestic demand may be picking up. But with the region’s... 27th December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly European policymakers still doing the bare minimum The news that EU leaders reached agreement last week on the treaty changes required to establish a “permanent crisis mechanism” in 2013 is unlikely to ease pressures in the peripheral bond markets... 20th December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Still no light at the end of the tunnel for the periphery Last week was a mixed one for the euro-zone’s peripheral economies. While it was a relatively quiet week in the financial markets, the economic news did nothing to alter our view that growth prospects... 13th December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB actions speak louder than words, but for how long? Any disappointment that the ECB failed last week to commit to a major stepping up of its bond purchases was offset by reports that it had nonetheless bought large amounts of peripheral bonds. But it... 6th December 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly German growth amid peripheral peril Ireland’s bailout and four-year fiscal plan have failed to reduce concerns about the euro-zone’s periphery. In fact, they are spreading again, most worryingly to Spain. While the risk of such a large... 29th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What will an Irish bailout package look like? Over the past week, it has become increasingly clear that it is now a matter of when, rather than if, Ireland receives some kind of financial support package. But there are still several unanswered... 22nd November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Recovery slowing as peripheral woes deepen This week has seen worries about the euro-zone’s periphery escalate again, with Ireland in the spotlight. While the gradually emerging details of a permanent “crisis resolution mechanism” have helped... 15th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the euro defying gravity? The euro’s further rise certainly has not supported our forecast that it might eventually fall to parity against the dollar. The worries about peripheral debt that we had expected to drive the... 8th November 2010 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Industrial recovery still going strong for now Recent news from the euro-zone industrial sector has provided some encouraging signs that, for now at least, output is merely starting to grow at a more sustainable rate, rather than grinding to a... 1st November 2010 · 1 min read
