Europe Economics Weekly EU elections, more weak surveys This week saw the release of another set of underwhelming business surveys, suggesting that the pick-up in GDP growth in Q1 will not be sustained, and some further evidence that price pressures remain... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss franc set to keep on rising The Swiss franc has strengthened in recent weeks, and we think that this trend will continue over the rest of the year. By contrast, despite the Swedish central bank’s concerns about the krona’s... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Bunds rally amid trade tensions and Italian fiscal risks Developments this week suggest that Italy’s government is on another collision course with the European Commission. Meanwhile, the risk of US car tariffs has eased, but it has not disappeared. Finally... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norwegian economy takes a breather We suspect that the weather-related weak patch in Norwegian activity in Q1 will prove temporary. Meanwhile, following the recent flare-up in trade tensions and the Swedish Riksbank’s dovish shift, we... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly German green shoots and Greek fiscal concerns This week saw further signs that the German economy regained some momentum at the end of Q1, as industrial production rose and exports picked up in March. But with the business surveys for March and... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank takes a pause, SNB to cut further The Norges Bank held interest rates on hold at 1.00% at its meeting on Thursday but signalled that it will “most likely” resume its tightening cycle at the next meeting, in June. Meanwhile, the... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sub-50 Swiss PMI, lower oil prices weigh on NOK As we expected, the KOF Economic Barometer from Switzerland edged down in April and remained consistent with Swiss GDP growth staying subdued in quarterly terms this year. The sub-50 reading for the... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Strong Q1 data probably a false dawn The rebound in euro-zone GDP growth to a respectable 0.4% q/q in the first quarter of this year has been greeted by many as proof that the economy is back on track. But we suspect that the expansion... 3rd May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Mixed messages from the Riksbank The dovish shift in the Riksbank’s policy stance this week was a step in the right direction, but we still think that policymakers and investors are overestimating the potential for interest rate... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Spanish elections, new oil price forecasts Spain’s economy is performing well in the run-up to Sunday’s general election, but we expect growth there to slow. Meanwhile, although we have revised up our oil price forecasts, energy inflation... 26th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank on hold, Finland coalition talks to drag on The Riksbank is all but certain to keep its repo rate unchanged at -0.25% at its policy meeting next week. Meanwhile, coalition negotiations following last week’s election in Finland are likely to... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Stronger Q1 GDP growth would not be sustained The reasonably strong run of hard data for the first two months of the year has prompted us to revised up our estimate of Q1 GDP growth to 0.3% q/q. However, the downbeat tone of the business surveys... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s dovish tone will need to be followed by action The ECB struck a moderately dovish tone at its policy meeting this week, but with economic growth still fairly slow it will need to follow its words with actions. Meanwhile, industrial production data... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Stagnation in Sweden, Norges Bank hawkish Private sector production data for February, released this week, added to the evidence from other indicators that Swedish economic growth slowed sharply at the start of 2019. We think that the Rikbank... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Manufacturing woes spreading to Switzerland The sharp drop in the manufacturing PMI in Switzerland in March provides the clearest sign yet that the woes in euro-zone industry have spread over the border. Meanwhile, the manufacturing and... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly More weak data ahead of April ECB meeting This week brought more disappointing data for the euro-zone. The ECB is unlikely to respond by loosening policy further at its meeting next Wednesday, but we think that it won’t be long before the... 5th April 2019 · 1 min read
