Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone probably slowed to a crawl in Q2 This week has seen more evidence that the euro-zone economy has lost momentum and that inflation remains a long way below target. Meanwhile, we have brought forward our forecast for the ECB to... 28th June 2019 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss-EU spat boils over; Riksbank to lower rate path The dispute between Switzerland and the EU has shifted up a gear but is unlikely to prevent the Swiss franc from rising further this year. Meanwhile, although the Riksbank looks certain to leave its... 28th June 2019 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss franc surges; best of Swedish bond rally is over Having seen the Swiss franc climb close to a two-year high this week following the flare-up in tensions between the US and Iran, the SNB will surely consider intervening soon – particularly if these... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Jens Weidmann won’t stop ECB QE The ECB is lining up further stimulus, and we doubt that even a Jens Weidmann presidency could stop it. Meanwhile, the decline in bond yields in Italy this week increases the risk that the government... 21st June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro looking undervalued, especially for Germany Following Mario Draghi’s more dovish comments earlier in the month, we now think the Governing Council is more willing to loosen policy further and have revised our already more-dovish-than-consensus... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Perma-doves at the SNB, Norges Bank to hike again The Swiss National Bank’s decision to leave its monetary policy settings unchanged on Thursday was something of a formality. But whereas some commentators have suggested that the Bank is out of... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Denmark shifts left; NOK to rise despite lower oil price Political news dominated this week, with the left-wing ‘red-bloc’ winning a majority in Denmark’s election and the successful formation of a five-party coalition in Finland – the Rinne Cabinet. On the... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB hints at looser policy, Italy in the dock President Draghi’s comments at this week’s press conference were consistent with our view that the ECB will eventually re-start its QE programme. Meanwhile, Italy looks set for another collision with... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly GDP growth to fall back in Q2; Danes go to the polls This week was dominated by Q1 GDP data releases, which surprised on the upside in both Switzerland and Sweden. But while the Swiss outcome was a welcome sign, the Swedish figure masked domestic... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB heading to Vilnius, inflation to drop back This week saw a fresh escalation of the tensions between Italy and the European Commission, and the publication of some fairly downbeat survey data. Combined with the very low inflation data we expect... 31st May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly EU elections, more weak surveys This week saw the release of another set of underwhelming business surveys, suggesting that the pick-up in GDP growth in Q1 will not be sustained, and some further evidence that price pressures remain... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss franc set to keep on rising The Swiss franc has strengthened in recent weeks, and we think that this trend will continue over the rest of the year. By contrast, despite the Swedish central bank’s concerns about the krona’s... 24th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Bunds rally amid trade tensions and Italian fiscal risks Developments this week suggest that Italy’s government is on another collision course with the European Commission. Meanwhile, the risk of US car tariffs has eased, but it has not disappeared. Finally... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norwegian economy takes a breather We suspect that the weather-related weak patch in Norwegian activity in Q1 will prove temporary. Meanwhile, following the recent flare-up in trade tensions and the Swedish Riksbank’s dovish shift, we... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly German green shoots and Greek fiscal concerns This week saw further signs that the German economy regained some momentum at the end of Q1, as industrial production rose and exports picked up in March. But with the business surveys for March and... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank takes a pause, SNB to cut further The Norges Bank held interest rates on hold at 1.00% at its meeting on Thursday but signalled that it will “most likely” resume its tightening cycle at the next meeting, in June. Meanwhile, the... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
