Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Dodgy data; Switzerland goes to the polls Despite “quality flaws” in Sweden’s unemployment data, the body of economic evidence still suggests that the economy is very weak. Meanwhile, the Green Party looks set to take make sizeable gains in... 18th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly No fiscal boost in 2020, Brexit deal on a knife edge Euro-zone governments have promised a fiscal stimulus in 2020, but we doubt that they will live up to their promises. Meanwhile, we expect the ECB to leave policy settings unchanged on Thursday at Mr... 18th October 2019 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SEK and NOK to fall further over the next six months Despite the healthy-looking activity data from Sweden for August, we are still bracing ourselves for a grim Q3 GDP figure and think that the risks to the krona are rooted to the downside. Meanwhile... 11th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Divisions at the ECB won’t prevent further easing The national industrial data released this week suggest that euro-zone production rose in August. But this looks like a blip not a turning point. With growth set to slow and inflation remain subdued... 11th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Things go from bad to worse in Sweden The sharp falls in the Swedish PMIs in September indicate that the economy contracted in Q3, while the slump in Swiss inflation in September will only strengthen the resolve of the SNB to resist... 4th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly US-EU aircraft dispute increases trade war risks The latest data suggest that euro-zone growth will continue to slow, and the WTO’s decision to grant the US permission to raise tariffs on the EU increases the risk that the bloc is drawn into the... 4th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Sweden stuck in first gear; Swiss franc on the up The latest survey data from Sweden provide further proof that the economy is too weak for the Riksbank to be able to raise interest rates within the next six months, as it forecasts. Meanwhile, we... 27th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Do policy splits on the ECB matter? Splits in the Governing Council will make life difficult for Christine Lagarde when she takes over the ECB presidency in November, but we still expect further policy easing to be agreed next year... 27th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Division at the Riksbank; SNB tweaks tiering system The tweaks to the SNB’s tiering system, which will make it more generous for domestic banks, give policymakers cover to cut interest rates further as and when needed. Meanwhile, we think the 25bp rate... 20th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Other euro-zone governments unlikely to go Dutch The announcement of a sizeable fiscal stimulus by the Netherlands is unlikely to be repeated by other euro-zone governments, disappointing the ECB’s hopes that fiscal policy will provide much more... 20th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB and Norges Bank to leave rates on hold We expect the SNB and the Norges Bank to leave their key interest rates on hold at their policy meetings next Thursday morning. Meanwhile, renewed downward pressure on the Danish krone has already... 13th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly What more could the ECB do? Even after yesterday’s loosening of monetary policy, the ECB is unlikely to hit its inflation target. The Bank is not yet out of ammunition, but we doubt that further easing would do much good. 13th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB will need to revise its growth forecasts down The latest economic data suggest that the euro-zone economy will continue to grow slowly in the second half of the year, so the ECB will need to revise its forecasts down next week. We also think that... 6th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank sticks to its guns, for now Next week, we expect Swedish and Norwegian CPI data to show that core inflation edged up in both cases in August, and revised Q2 Swedish GDP data to show that the economy contracted even faster than... 6th September 2019 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank to (finally) turn more dovish next week While the Riksbank is likely to leave its repo rate on hold at -0.25% at its policy meeting on Thursday next week, we expect it to adopt a more dovish stance and to slash its forecasts for the economy... 30th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Has the market done the ECB’s job for it? More policy loosening is on the way. But the case for the ECB to re-launch its public sector purchase programme is increasingly difficult to make given the recent rally in bonds. Meanwhile, we are... 30th August 2019 · 7 mins read
