Europe Economics Weekly Unemployment lower, inflation higher than expected At the end of a data-heavy week, we have learnt that the euro-zone economy slumped as much as expected in Q1, but unemployment rose much less than anticipated in March. Meanwhile, the highlights of... 1st May 2020 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Surveys at their limits; Norges Bank to cut to zero While the KOF Economic Barometer registered its largest monthly fall on record in April, like many other indicators elsewhere, it is struggling to capture the unprecedented scale of damage wreaked by... 1st May 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Lockdown April the nadir, but slow recovery ahead Following the further slump in the April surveys, the lifting of some restrictions in a number of member states over the past week or so has provided a glimmer of hope that April might mark the bottom... 24th April 2020 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank heading for negative territory While the 1.9% q/q plunge in mainland GDP in Norway in Q1 was slightly smaller than the record seen in 2008, it is an eye-watering decline given that the lockdown did not really begin until 12th March... 24th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB might need a bigger bazooka The ECB is now buying assets at a record pace. But it is still struggling to keep a lid on bond yields, so there is a good chance that it has to step up its purchases even further. Meanwhile, new... 17th April 2020 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly The gradual process of reopening begins While activity in the Swiss economy has fallen off a cliff, the stereotypical efficiency with which loans have been channelled to businesses means that the country is well placed to recover. Next week... 17th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Monetary policy still doing the heavy lifting Evidence has continued to mount this week that the slump in activity in much of the euro-zone has been unprecedented. Meanwhile, disagreements between finance ministers were on display again, leaving... 9th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly The Ides of March do it again The ramp-up in containment measures in mid-March dealt a huge blow to the Norwegian economy. While restrictions will start to be lifted slowly later this month, we think that it is increasingly likely... 9th April 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone leaders argue as economy collapses Data this week provided yet more evidence that the lockdowns in place across the euro-zone have caused economic activity to collapse, forcing firms to lay off millions of workers across the region at... 3rd April 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norwegian unemployment explodes close to 15% While the decline in the Swedish services PMI in March seems small compared to the eye-watering declines in the euro-zone, the underlying picture is worse than it may first appear. Next week, we... 3rd April 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB steps up, EU leaders at loggerheads Evidence is mounting that the slump in euro-zone GDP will be even steeper than the 15% drop that we had anticipated. This will put huge pressure on the public finances. The ECB has at least taken the... 27th March 2020 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB puts its moral hazard worries to the side The virus-related hit to activity appears to be even deeper than the 15% q/q declines in GDP that we tentatively pencilled in a few weeks ago. Data released next week are likely to show that Swiss CPI... 27th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly NOK carnage; Danish rate hike! The Norwegian krone has endured an extraordinary week and will be vulnerable to further falls until market sentiment improves. Nonetheless, if our forecast for oil prices to start to rise later this... 20th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB’s next challenge is to raise its issuer limits Following the huge expansion of its asset purchases this week, the ECB’s will still need to raise the issuer limits on its bond holdings. We think it will eventually do so, providing a credible... 20th March 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Taking stock of the policy responses so far Following the raft of policy measures by Nordic central banks this week, the focus next week will be on what the SNB has up its sleeve. We have pencilled in a cut in the policy rate, to -1.00%. Other... 13th March 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Market rout as EZ policymakers fail to convince Despite a rebound today, euro-zone financial markets have had a disastrous week as policymakers, including the ECB, failed to convince investors that they will respond adequately to the economic shock... 13th March 2020 · 5 mins read
