Europe Economics Weekly New virus numbers peaking, inflation falls further There is a chink of light at the end of the tunnel for France and Spain, where the number of new COVID-19 cases has begun to fall. But this may be too late to prevent a contraction in GDP in the... 2nd October 2020 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly NOK to push for parity against SEK next year We think the combination of a recovery in risk appetite and an expected increase in oil prices will support the Norwegian krone in 2021, and that it will regain ground on its Swedish cousin. Data due... 2nd October 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Fighter jets, wolves, and immigration While Sunday’s vote on restricting freedom of movement between Switzerland and the EU seems unlikely to pass, it puts the strained relations between the Swiss government and the EU back in focus. Next... 25th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Services activity falling as virus rules are tightened This week brought evidence that the economic recovery is grinding to a halt and that activity in the services sector is falling. And with the stringency of virus containment measures only going in one... 25th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Policymakers to keep their powder dry next week The three scheduled policy meetings next week are unlikely to result in any changes to policy settings. However, we would not be surprised to see the Norges Bank bring forward the projected start-date... 18th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Lockdown risks rise, low inflation here to stay The escalation of virus cases in parts of France and Spain, with officials worrying about the strain on hospitals, means that we would not be surprised to see strict regional lockdowns imposed in the... 18th September 2020 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank unlikely to tighten anytime soon While core inflation in Norway rose even further above the Norges Bank’s target in August, things will soon look very different as the inflationary impact of previous falls in the krone fades and goes... 11th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro worries increase chance of rate cut The euro is back in the spotlight this week, with the likes of ECB chief economist Philip Lane worrying (too much in our in view) about the impact of its recent appreciation on the inflation outlook... 11th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak data and strong(ish) euro ahead of ECB meeting The latest data suggest that the euro-zone’s economic recovery is losing pace and price pressures are extremely weak. With some ECB policymakers also concerned by the appreciation of the euro, they... 4th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank shrugs off krona surge The Swedish krona has risen the most of any G10 currency against the US dollar this year, but its trade-weighted index is not particularly strong, so policymakers don’t seem to be losing much sleep... 4th September 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly German generosity, Fed’s shift food for thought at ECB Given that economic activity is still below pre-virus levels and the resurgence in virus cases shows little sign of abating, it is hardly surprising that Germany and France announced extensions to... 28th August 2020 · 9 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly KOF hits decade-high; retail sugar-rush starting to fade The Swiss economy contracted by more than those in the Nordics in the first half of the year but appears to have rebounded strongly in the third quarter. Rising virus cases in the country are... 28th August 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Early signs that activity might be falling The recent increase in virus cases across the euro-zone has been concentrated among younger people than in the first wave of the crisis, so it is putting less pressure on public health systems and... 21st August 2020 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss pharma boom rolls on; Riksbank biding its time The resilience of the pharmaceutical sector masked much deeper problems in the Swiss manufacturing sector in Q2, but signs that German industry continued to rebound in August bode well given strong... 21st August 2020 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Denmark outperforms in Q2 News that Danish GDP contracted by 7.4% q/q in Q2 leaves us happy with our forecast that it will fall by only around 3% this calendar year – a much smaller contraction than we expect in the euro-zone... 14th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Rebound phase coming to an end It seems increasingly likely that the rebound phase in the euro-zone is coming to an end. There is a bit more room for industrial production to rise in July, but not much beyond that, while retail... 14th August 2020 · 6 mins read
