Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Denmark charts new course as the SNB steams ahead While lockdowns are being tightened and/or extended in much of mainland Europe, the attention in Denmark is shifting towards easing restrictions, which should allow activity there to rebound sooner... 26th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Updating our GDP and markets forecasts This week, we revised our forecasts for GDP, bond yields and the euro. We now think that the euro-zone economy will recover more slowly than we previously anticipated, growing by about 3% this year... 26th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Hawkish Norges Bank to help push NOK higher You don’t need to be a mind reader to figure out what the Norges Bank is thinking, and it now expects to start raising interest rates in late 2021. As it happens, given the momentum in oil prices and... 19th March 2021 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly No show of ECB strength, third wave underway While we assume that the ECB has stepped up its bond purchases under the PEPP this week, bond market moves have provided little reassurance that the Bank is determined to squash any rise in yields... 19th March 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB promises more, but keeps it flexible The ECB’s policy statement this week pledges more support, but leaves plenty of room for disputes over the meanings of a “significantly higher pace” of asset purchases and “favourable” financing... 12th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Brace yourself for a more hawkish Norges Bank We think that the Norges Bank will bring forward the projected start date of interest rate hikes next Thursday, and there is a chance that it could re-tighten macroprudential policy too. Meanwhile, we... 12th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Franc falls further; kNOcKing on the door of SEK parity The further fall in the Swiss franc this week will have caused smiles all around at the SNB, and the stage looks set for the currency to ease lower this year. The major event next week will be the ECB... 5th March 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Covid infections, bond yields and inflation Pressure on public health services has continued to build, prompting some governments to extend their Covid restrictions until late March. Meanwhile, higher inflation and bond yields will make the ECB... 5th March 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Bond market jitters; SNB cracks open the champagne We suspect that Swedish and Swiss government bond yields will come down again before long given the strong relationship with Bunds and the prospect of the ECB stepping in. However, our hawkish view... 26th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Rising yields put pressure on ECB The surge in euro-zone government bond yields this week has ruffled the feathers of the doves at the ECB, who are keen to look through short-term upward forces on inflation. The still-high number of... 26th February 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Rising bond yields, resilient manufacturing We doubt that the increase in sovereign bond yields this week is the beginning of sustained rise in borrowing costs, even if the headline inflation rate rises further. Meanwhile, we are looking... 19th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norges Bank to hike first; look out for off-colour mink We now forecast the Norges Bank to be the first advanced central bank to begin raising interest rates, in the second half of this year. This will provide a further fillip to the NOK, which we expect... 19th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Divisions to test compromises at the Riksbank While the Riksbank presented a united front at its meeting this week, we suspect that differences in opinion amongst Board members on how to proceed with the asset purchase programme will become more... 12th February 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Don’t get carried away with Draghi Italy’s government of national unity looks set to have a hefty majority, making it more stable and putting it in a better position to pass fiscal measures and reforms. But we wouldn’t get carried away... 12th February 2021 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly The return of Super Mario Mario Draghi is looking increasingly set to become the next Italian prime minister, leading Italy's recovery from the pandemic. That is likely to entail more fiscal stimulus, but structural reforms... 5th February 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swedish resilience, Swiss reluctance The latest data show that the Swedish economy is proving more resilient to virus containment measures than we had feared, giving the Riksbank some breathing room ahead of next week’s meeting. Having... 5th February 2021 · 7 mins read
