Europe Economics Weekly Poor start to vaccine rollout poses risks to recovery A decline in GDP in Q1 now seems highly likely, but the bigger concern is that slow vaccination programmes and concerns about virus variants may delay the lifting of restrictions in Q2 and beyond... 29th January 2021 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swiss economy in for a tough few months This week's data support our view that the Swiss economic recovery has shifted into reverse this quarter. Meanwhile, next week’s data are likely to show that Sweden’s economy expanded relatively... 29th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Inflation to stay much lower in euro-zone than US Data published this week confirmed that inflation is extremely weak in the euro-zone, and we expect it to remain well below target in the coming years even as inflation rises above 2% in the US. Next... 22nd January 2021 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Slow vaccine rollout key risk to the outlook In a quiet week for data, the Norges Bank left its key policy rate at a record low of zero, where we suspect it will stay until at least 2023. Meanwhile, we think the extension of some virus measures... 22nd January 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Virus data cloud Q1 outlook, Italian politics in turmoil While the economic data published this week were fairly encouraging about the euro-zone’s performance at the end of last year, the deterioration in the virus situation and associated tougher measures... 15th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Rate cut more likely than not in Denmark Another week another set of data which add to the signs that Norway’s and Sweden’s economies ended Q4 on a decent note and outperformed even the best-performing major euro-zone economies in 2020... 15th January 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly In store for a bumpy start to 2021 The gloomy backdrop of rising virus cases casts a dark shadow over Q1. However, we expect the rollout of vaccines will pave the way to a rebound in economic activity in May/June, and that Nordic... 8th January 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Fast-spreading virus, slow vaccinations The economy withstood the second lockdowns comparatively well in November and December. But rising virus numbers and the painfully slow start to the vaccination rollout mean that the region is... 8th January 2021 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB pleads “not guilty”; Denmark to close down The designation of Switzerland as a “currency manipulator” by the US Treasury means that the SNB will enter 2021 on the economic equivalent of the naughty step. However, we suspect that the incoming... 18th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Lessons for 2021 Based on this year’s experience, activity should rebound quickly in 2021 once restrictions are lifted, probably during Q2. But with price pressures set to remain very weak at least for the next couple... 18th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank divided; SNB & Norges Bank to hold rates The minutes from the Riksbank’s November meeting confirmed that a repo rate cut is not completely off the table. However, the vaccine has brightened the outlook next year, and we no longer forecast a... 11th December 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Virus restrictions continue, ECB provides more support The extension of virus restrictions in France and calls for tougher measures in Germany this week strengthen our view that euro-zone economic activity will still be substantially curtailed in early... 11th December 2020 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Suspect Swedish PMI; from Minkgate to Skigate While the pick-up in the services PMI in Sweden in November was a bit of a surprise, the prospect of restrictions having to be tightened even further means that the sector is far from out of the woods... 4th December 2020 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Ailing economy to get policy booster A mixed bag of data releases this week leaves us happy with our forecasts for a 3% contraction in GDP this quarter and a strong recovery next year as vaccines are rolled out. Next week, the ECB will... 4th December 2020 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank steps up as the SNB settles in The Riksbank justifiably felt the need to give the economy a shot in the arm at its meeting this week. But positive news on the vaccine front means that it should be able to avoid increasing the dose... 27th November 2020 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Q4 contraction before fairly quick rebound in 2021 Following the flurry of positive news on vaccines, we have revised up our economic forecasts for 2021 and 2022. Among the major economies, we think that Germany will be the standout performer. Spain... 27th November 2020 · 8 mins read
