Europe Economics Update US recession underlines downside risks to BoE/ECB rates Recent news on the US economy, most notably February’s sharp drop in non-farm payrolls, has left us even more pessimistic over the outlook for the US. We now forecast GDP growth of just 0.5% in 2008... 10th March 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Zapatero's victory won't change the outlook for Spain Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero’s victory in Sunday’s general election paves the way for the implementation of a new fiscal package aimed at reviving Spain’s ailing economy. But on its own, this will not... 10th March 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update UK to slip down housing table in 2008 The latest annual European Housing Report published by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) echoed other evidence pointing to a general slowdown in the pace of activity and price... 7th March 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB resists the pressure, for now The European Central Bank today poured cold water on suggestions that it might cut interest rates as soon as next month. But with the economy clearly slowing and the euro hitting new record highs, it... 6th March 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italian bond spreads could widen further The further widening in Italian bond spreads seen over the last few days appears partly to reflect suggestions that the downturn in the economy will once again raise questions over Italy’s future in... 5th March 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Industrial slump adds to Spain's pre-election woes Evidence of a major slump in Spain’s industrial sector has further worsened the outlook for the economy ahead of this weekend’s general election. We remain concerned that, whatever the outcome of the... 3rd March 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German pay deal will add to the ECB’s inflation concerns The news that Germany’s largest trade union, IG Metall, has won a 5.2% pay rise over the next 14 months has added to concerns over a build-up in medium-term inflationary pressures. While we think that... 20th February 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank raises rates to 4.25% The surprise decision by the Swedish Riksbank to raise interest rates from 4.0% to 4.25% today confirmed that it remains concerned about the outlook for inflation. And with its latest interest rate... 13th February 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank raises rates to 4.25% The surprise decision by the Swedish Riksbank to raise interest rates from 4.0% to 4.25% today confirmed that it remains concerned about the outlook for inflation. And with its latest interest rate... 13th February 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update France won't succumb to pressure to reduce deficit The latest pressure on the French government to bring its finances into order is unlikely to alter its fiscal plans in the near term. Indeed, with tough talk from other euro-zone ministers confirming... 12th February 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB starts to soften While the European Central Bank declined to follow the Fed and Bank of England in cutting interest rates today, tentative signs of a softening in its previously stubbornly hawkish stance support our... 7th February 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish interest rate expectations have fallen too far The Swedish economy has slowed in recent months, but with inflationary pressures still alive and kicking we expect the Riksbank’s response to be less aggressive than markets anticipate. Indeed, we... 30th January 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish interest rate expectations have fallen too far The Swedish economy has slowed in recent months, but with inflationary pressures still alive and kicking we expect the Riksbank’s response to be less aggressive than markets anticipate. Indeed, we... 30th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Fiscal policy won't cushion the euro-zone Recent calls (most notably from IMF head Dominique Strauss-Kahn) for governments to use fiscal policy to support their economies beg the question of whether the euro-zone might benefit from such... 29th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Italian political crisis another blow to slowing economy The latest political crisis in Italy is unlikely to have a major impact on the markets or the economy itself. Nonetheless, at a time when consumer confidence is already slumping, the additional... 25th January 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB to cut rates to 3.0% We argued back in December that expectations that the ECB would raise interest rates this year would prove to be wrong. With economic activity in the region continuing to cool and other central banks... 23rd January 2008 · 1 min read
