Europe Economics Update ECB set to disappoint markets in the near term Interest rate expectations in the euro-zone have fallen sharply along with those elsewhere in recent weeks and are now pricing in a strong chance of an ECB rate cut this year. While we think that talk... 17th September 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update German political re-shuffle reduces chance of tax cuts The latest changes to the leadership of Germany’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) probably bode well for long-term structural reform of the economy. But they also further reduce the chance of near-term... 8th September 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB still fretting over inflation outlook The European Central Bank’s hawkish tone at today’s press conference confirmed that interest rate cuts are not yet on the agenda. But we still expect slowing activity and falling energy inflation to... 4th September 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Riksbank signals that interest rates have peaked The decision by the Riksbank to raise interest rates from 4.50% to 4.75% clearly shows that it remains concerned about the emergence of ”second-round inflation” effects. But while the Bank did signal... 4th September 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank signals that interest rates have peaked The decision by the Riksbank to raise interest rates from 4.50% to 4.75% clearly shows that it remains concerned about the emergence of ”second-round inflation” effects. But while the Bank did signal... 4th September 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB unlikely to rip up the lending rulebook Thursday’s ECB press conference provides the Bank with a chance to provide greater details about any proposed changes to its collateral requirements for lending in its open market operations. While we... 3rd September 2008 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update SNB’s optimism likely to prove misplaced Upbeat comments from Swiss National Bank Chairman Jean-Pierre Roth in this morning’s press are atodds with our own view. While it is true that some aspects of the Swiss economy appear robust fornow... 19th August 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spanish house prices to fall by 25% The recent run of terrible economic news from Spain and the sharp falls in house prices in a number of other developed economies have led us to revise down our forecast for Spanish house prices. We... 13th August 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sun not about to set on Greece Recent news from Greece has provided some encouraging signs that it is escaping the economic slowdown which now appears to be engulfing the other Club-Med economies. 11th August 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB on hold for some months yet Comments from the European Central Bank have retained a relatively hawkish tone, suggesting that it will be some time before the Bank is prepared to bolster the flagging economy with interest rate... 7th August 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone could be first to enter recession Our view that the euro-zone economy would fare relatively well in the global downturn has been undermined by the latest news on Germany and the deterioration in the business surveys. It now looks... 6th August 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Pick-up in German wages growth won't last long The latest evidence of rising German wages growth suggests that households’ real incomes are receiving some much-needed support. But we still expect slowing activity to prevent wages growth from... 29th July 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Falling house prices pile further pressure on Spain The latest housing market data from Spain revealed that house prices have begun to fall. Over the coming quarters, we expect the slowdown to pick up pace, causing a further downturn in the... 15th July 2008 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB not pre-disposed to further rate hikes A softer tone from the European Central Bank has supported our view that today’s interest rate hike will not be the first in a series. Indeed, given more signs lately of a marked slowdown in economic... 3rd July 2008 · 1 min read
