Europe Economics Update Will the ECB follow the Fed? With the launch of QE3, the Federal Reserve has clearly trumped the ECB’s conditional pledge to make sterilised bond purchases. Similar action is warranted in the euro-zone and technically feasible... 17th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Is the bazooka now in place? The German Court’s decision to allow the ESM to be ratified, together with the ECB’s earlier promise to meet ESM bond purchases with unlimited purchases of its own, suggests that a substantial... 12th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Will the ECB provide a "third bail-out" for Greece? The ECB’s willingness to make “unlimited” government bond purchases in order to calm the situation in Spain could potentially have large positive repercussions for Greece too. But on balance, we doubt... 10th September 2012 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish rate cut unlikely to be the last We doubt that the latest interest rate reduction by the Riksbank will be the last in the cycle. If the euro-zone debt crisis intensifies as we expect, interest rates may eventually fall well below 1%. 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Positive reaction to ECB could prove short-lived The confirmation that the ECB is prepared to buy “unlimited” quantities of peripheral government bonds looks encouraging at face value. But the details reveal that the Bank has not upped its policy... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone GDP (Q2) The second euro-zone GDP release for Q2 revealed that last quarter’s contraction was down to a decline in domestic spending. With the timelier data consistent with sharper declines in activity ahead... 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish rate cut unlikely to be the last We doubt that the latest interest rate reduction by the Riksbank will be the last in the cycle. If the euro-zone debt crisis intensifies as we expect, interest rates may eventually fall well below 1%. 6th September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Aug.) The latest fiscal data suggest that most of the peripheral economies will struggle to meet their budget deficit targets for 2012 without implementing further austerity measures. 3rd September 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) The latest monetary data confirm that the ECB’s earlier liquidity operations have yet to boost lending to the private sector, which will add to the pressure on the Bank to do more. As well as buying... 28th August 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Pressure on Greece continues to grow The Greek Government’s inability to agree on how to cut public spending highlights the ongoing fragility of the situation there. And with euro-zone policymakers still unwilling to concede any ground... 8th August 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update EFSF/ECB support for Spain: some unanswered questions The ECB’s statement last week that it might buy Spanish bonds if the government first applies for EFSF support has left many questions unanswered, which we address in this Update. In short, it seems... 6th August 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB fails to do “whatever it takes” President Draghi’s comments at today’s ECB press conference were a blow to hopes that the Bank might quickly make huge bond purchases to address the euro-zone’s escalating debt crisis. While the Bank... 2nd August 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Why Latvia is not a blueprint for the euro-zone's periphery Despite the fact that Latvia’s economy has returned to growth, it is still far from clear that it has undergone the necessary “internal devaluation” required to fully restore competitiveness. What’s... 1st August 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jul. 12) Recent fiscal data suggest that a large number of peripheral and core economies are struggling to make inroads into their budget deficits. And with the growth outlook continuing to deteriorate, many... 31st July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) The latest monetary data provide no indication that the ECB’s earlier liquidity measures are prompting banks to lend more to the wider economy. 26th July 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Weaker currency won't save the euro-zone While the depreciation of the euro exchange rate is a helpful development for the euro-zone economy, suggestions that it alone can save the currency union look very hopeful. 25th July 2012 · 1 min read
