Europe Economics Update Gap between Germany and France to widen Recent economic data suggest that France is lagging further behind Germany. If anything, we suspect that this gap will widen as the year goes on, leading tensions between the two countries to rise. 28th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec. 12) The latest euro-zone monetary data have brought further signs of an improvement in financial market conditions. However, lending to firms and households has continued to fall and seems unlikely to... 28th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update LTRO repayments to give mixed signals The expected repayment of some ECB LTRO funding should add to signs that the region’s banking system is on the mend. But it will also underline the weakness of demand in the region and could fuel... 24th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update What scope for a virtuous circle? While the improvement in financial market sentiment seen over recent months should have some beneficial effects on the euro-zone’s troubled economies, hopes that a “virtuous circle” will bring an end... 23rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Post-election Germany might offer periphery more support Yesterday’s narrow loss for Germany’s current governing coalition in the state of Lower Saxony added to evidence that September’s general election could result in a change of government. While Angela... 21st January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Cypriot bail-out struggles continue The Troika and the Cypriot Government have reached a stalemate, with the latter refusing to agree to the terms for a vital bail-out. An agreement should be reached after next month’s election and... 17th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update The euro could rise further - unhelpfully While the euro may well strengthen further in the near term, we still expect it to weaken again later in the year as worries over the currency union resurface. In the meantime, though, the strong... 15th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB dampens hopes of further policy action The European Central Bank (ECB) appears content to sit on the sidelines for now and hope that the recent stabilisation of the euro-zone debt crisis continues. Eventually, however, President Draghi’s... 10th January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Dec. 12) The latest fiscal data support the view that both Italy and Spain will fail to meet their fiscal goals for 2012 as a whole. 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Nov. 12) The latest euro-zone monetary data brought no signs of any easing in the severe credit constraints facing both households and companies in the single currency area. 3rd January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Monti’s declaration will not end political uncertainty Mario Monti’s widely expected decision to head a “centrist alliance” probably increases the chances of Italy continuing its reform process, but the political situation remains uncertain. What’s more... 2nd January 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update 2013: Another challenging year for the euro-zone The intervention of the European Central Bank helped to prevent the euro-zone debt crisis from escalating further in 2012. But the currency union still faces a number of major challenges in 2013. 20th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update How encouraging are recent current account trends? The narrowing of the southern euro-zone economies’ current account deficits implies that economic imbalances within the region are shrinking. But the rebalancing process is far from complete. 19th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update 2012: Day of reckoning postponed by the ECB Our fears that 2012 could be the “crunch year” for the euro-zone were not borne out – barring catastrophe in the next week or so! However, the fact that the economic news has been largely as we... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Negative ECB rates might do more harm than good Given the dubious benefits and possible costs of cutting deposit rates below zero, we still see ECB interest rates remaining on hold for the foreseeable future. 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish Riksbank lowers rates and further cuts to come We doubt that the latest interest rate reduction by the Swedish Riksbank will be the last in the current cycle. While the Bank has concerns about the longer-term effects of a prolonged period of low... 18th December 2012 · 1 min read
