Emerging Markets Economics Focus EMs and Fed tightening revisited The outcome of next week’s FOMC meeting is finely balanced, but it’s possible that it could deliver the first increase in US interest rates since 2006. In this Focus we revisit research we’ve... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Lessons from history: is a debt problem brewing in EMs? We have been warning about the dangers stemming from rapid credit growth in several EMs for a while. In this Focus we revisit the possible lessons from history. Three points stand out – with... 15th April 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Shifting sands: why the outlook for the BRICs is starting to diverge The prospects for the four largest emerging economies – Brazil, Russia, India and China – are starting to diverge. The outlook for India is improving and, despite a recent run of poor data, we think... 27th March 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus What do lower oil prices mean for the emerging world? The collapse in global oil prices will provide a boost to most economies in the emerging world. However, it will come at the cost of weaker growth in the Middle East, and deep recessions in Russia and... 28th January 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Ten key questions for EMs in 2015 The slump in oil prices and renewed falls in EM currencies over the past month have rekindled fears over the outlook for emerging markets. In this Focus we outline the ten key issues that we think... 12th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The end of an era for globalisation and what it means for EM trade The period of sluggish EM export growth over the past few years is only partly linked to the weak state of global demand. Another key factor is that the wave of globalisation over the previous decade... 4th December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Why slower growth is the "new normal" for emerging markets For all the recent talk of a “great moderation” in EM growth, the uncomfortable truth is that the big slowdown in the emerging world actually occurred several years ago. More recently, growth has in... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus How important is urbanisation for long-run growth? The role of urbanisation in supporting growth in emerging markets is often overplayed. Although urbanisation can play an important role in supporting industrialisation, it doesn’t in itself drive... 11th September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus From turbulence to tranquillity: are EM markets now too complacent? After a choppy 2013, financial markets have turned optimistic over the outlook for EMs in recent months. In many ways this makes sense. We were always of the view that last year’s concerns that Fed... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Which EMs are succeeding with the reform challenge? In contrast to the BRICs, where economic growth is likely to disappoint without structural reform, there are parts of the emerging world where recent economic reforms should provide a major boost to... 19th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Will the BRICs embrace economic reforms? The recent slowdown in the major BRIC economies has been driven largely by structural factors, meaning that a new wave of reforms is needed if they are to regain their vigour. But, as things stand... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Five questions (and answers) about the turmoil in EM markets The emerging world may not be facing a re-run of the late-1990s, as some have suggested, but theprecarious position of some EMs makes it likely that several economies will run into trouble overthe... 4th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus What to expect from emerging markets in 2014 For all the recent talk of a “Great Deceleration”, we think that the bulk of the slowdown in EM growth has already happened. Growth in aggregate next year looks set to be broadly unchanged from 2013... 19th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus How might policymakers react when the EM credit bubble bursts? We have previously identified six emerging markets where credit growth appears to be unsustainable: Brazil, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand and Turkey. In the event of a crisis, past experience... 9th December 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Is a debt problem brewing in emerging markets? Having been spectators to the credit crisis that has gripped the developed world since 2008, debt problems now seem to be building in several major EMs. There are good reasons to think that the... 22nd October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Five years on – what next for the emerging world? In the five years since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, emerging economies have accounted for three-quarters of global growth. This has fed expectations that the emerging world can continue to... 13th September 2013 · 1 min read
