Emerging Markets Economics Focus How vaccines will affect our EM forecasts This Focus sets out a framework for thinking about how the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines will affect the outlook for EMs. For much of Emerging Europe and Chile, these developments may allow... 30th November 2020 · 14 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The winners and losers from climate change Climate change will be more costly to EMs than developed countries, with parts of Africa, as well as South and South East Asia most vulnerable to rising global temperatures. That said, some EMs could... 19th November 2020 · 15 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Could the crisis lead to higher EM inflation? Large output gaps look set to keep inflation low in most emerging markets over the next few years. But further out, we think that worrying public debt trajectories in some places (Brazil and South... 13th October 2020 · 15 mins read
Global Economics Focus Lasting blow to supply capacity is not inevitable It is by no means inevitable that the coronavirus crisis puts a big permanent hole in the supply capacity of economies (i.e. their ability to produce goods and services). With the right government... 29th June 2020 · 28 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus The coronavirus and the emerging world The impact of the coronavirus means aggregate EM GDP is likely to have contracted in q/q terms for the first time since the global financial crisis in Q1. If the outbreak is contained quickly, most... 12th February 2020 · 17 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Key calls for EMs in 2020 2020 will be a year in which EM GDP growth edges up and many major central banks catch investors by surprise. This Focus outlines our key calls for next year. 18th December 2019 · 13 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus How will the future of globalisation play out? While the downside risks of a global trade war are often overstated, we think the bigger concern is that the world splits into competing regional blocs that do not cooperate on trade or investment... 22nd October 2019 · 19 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Does globalisation have a future? Globalisation has peaked, with any further major integration unlikely. In fact, a policy-driven period of de-globalisation is increasingly likely. 15th October 2019 · 33 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Globalisation and its effects on the world economy We estimate that the current wave of globalisation is responsible for around a third of the pick-up in global per capita income growth since 1990. Almost all of that reflects an improvement in... 10th October 2019 · 22 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Lessons from the history of globalisation History shows that waves of globalisation are driven by both technology and policy, but protectionist shifts alone tend to end them. In some cases, like in the 1970s, a moderate pushback by... 8th October 2019 · 20 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Four points on EM political risk premiums The key determinants of EM political risk premiums are the type of political shock and the strength of an economy’s external balance sheet. With this in mind, Ukraine and Argentina have the greatest... 1st May 2019 · 13 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Is China blocking other countries’ path to prosperity? Rising automation, excellent infrastructure and the migration of some productive capacity into the cheaper interior mean that China is likely to remain a highly competitive export manufacturing centre... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Will emerging markets outperform in the long-run? The broad tailwinds that lifted growth across the emerging world over the past two decades won’t be repeated and, as a result, GDP growth will be around 2%-pts weaker over the next 20 years. Income... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Are EMs prepared for another downturn? The economic cycle in most EMs has passed its peak and a combination of domestic headwinds and a slowdown in the global economy means growth will be weaker than most expect across the emerging world... 21st February 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Key calls for EMs in 2019 We think 2019 is likely to be a year in which EM growth slows, and by more than most expect, while asset prices fall. In this Focus, we outline our key calls for next year. 13th December 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Could EMs cause the next crash? Classic EM crises have caused waves, but have rarely triggered global downturns. And in any case the current risk of a 1980s-style EM crisis is low. The bigger risk is of a China ‘hard landing’ which... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
