Emerging Europe Economics Update What to expect from Turkey’s constitutional referendum The focus ahead of Turkey’s constitutional referendum, taking place in a month’s time, has been on the political ramifications, but relatively little has been said about the economic impact. Our sense... 16th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Dovish Polish MPC suggests that tightening is long way off The dovish stance taken by the Polish MPC in its post-meeting press conference reinforces our view that, despite the recent rise in inflation, monetary policy will remain loose over the next couple of... 8th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central & South Eastern Europe: Q4 pick-up driven by exports The recently-released breakdowns of Q4 GDP data in the Central and South Eastern European economies showed that the pick-up in regional growth at the end of last year was driven by an encouraging... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank’s bond purchases are not backdoor QE The recent rise in the Turkish central bank’s holdings of government debt doesn’t appear to be the backdoor effort to ease monetary policy that some fear. Even so, the concerns this has raised... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Why does Russian inflation keep on surprising on the downside? Russia’s weekly CPI figures have become increasingly misleading, which appears to have resulted in a tendency for forecasters to underestimate how quickly headline inflation would ease. Looking deeper... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update January’s inflation jump unlikely to last EM inflation jumped in January on the back of a rise in fuel price inflation. However, this was driven entirely by base effects stemming from the drop in oil prices at the start of last year. These... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rallies in ruble and lira lack strong foundations The Russian ruble and Turkish lira have been among the best performing EM currencies this month, but we don’t think their rallies will be sustained. It seems most likely that the ruble will settle... 24th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What do Russia’s revised industrial data tell us? Revisions to Russia’s industrial production data, which show that the manufacturing sector’s performance in 2015-16 was much better than previously thought, mean it now looks like the economy returned... 21st February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Does the rally in the ruble have further to run? There doesn’t appear to be any strong justification for the 5% appreciation of the ruble against the dollar this month and we think the currency will revert to its historic relationship with global... 16th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC signals that rate hikes not on the agenda The dovish tone of the Polish MPC’s post-meeting press conference this afternoon reinforces our view that the policy interest rate will be kept at its current historic low of 1.50% throughout 2017-18... 8th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian rates to rise further than many expect The fairly hawkish post-meeting press conference and upwards revisions to the central bank’s inflation forecasts suggest that the Romanian MPC is increasingly concerned about the prospect of loose... 7th February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian central bank takes hawkish turn, but cuts on the cards The hawkish statement by the Central Bank of Russia that accompanied today’s decision to leave the policy rate on hold has prompted us to revise up our end-year interest rate forecast (to 8.25%... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hawkish statement suggests Czech koruna policy to end soon The upwards revisions to the Czech National Bank’s inflation forecasts and the relatively hawkish post-meeting press conference reinforce our view that the Council’s koruna cap policy will end fairly... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Dissecting Russia’s new fiscal rule Russia’s new “fiscal rule”, which takes effect this week, is unusual insofar as it governs how the budget deficit is financed, rather than anchoring either the size of the deficit or the scale of... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish lira caught in the crosshairs The sharp fall in the Turkish lira already this year, and the disappointing response by the central bank, have prompted us to revise our currency forecast down. We now see it ending the year at 4.00/$... 31st January 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fuel to push up inflation in most, but not all, EMs A pick-up in fuel price inflation is set to push up headline inflation in many EMs over the coming months. But this is not true across the board. In some countries, including Brazil and Russia, any... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
