Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian rate hikes coming onto the agenda Comments by the Romanian National Bank Governor at this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference suggest that the MPC is inching towards starting a tightening cycle, reinforcing our view that the... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC signals mid-2017 CZK cap exit, rates to stay near zero The Czech MPC’s post-meeting press conference reinforced our view that it will lift the exchange rate ceiling around the middle of next year. We think it’s unlikely that the koruna will strengthen... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How much of a concern are Russia’s public finances? The fall in oil prices has caused a considerable deterioration in Russia’s budget position, forcing the government to dip into its oil reserves. In this Update, we answer six key questions on the... 28th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM-wide inflation drops to seven-year low EM inflation is now at a seven-year low. Looking ahead, it is set to ease further in most major commodity producing EMs over the coming months, providing central banks with room to cut interest rates. 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC shifts focus to growth The Turkish MPC’s decision to cut its overnight lending rate by a further 25bp was accompanied by a clear shift in the Council’s focus to concerns about the economic slowdown. This provides even more... 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech koruna not likely to see sharp gains when cap lifted Despite growing views to the contrary, it’s not clear to us that the Czech koruna will appreciate sharply as and when the National Bank exits the exchange rate “cap” policy. 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary upgraded but bond rally limited The rally in Hungary’s financial markets following its return to investment grade last Friday has grabbed the headlines, but in practice most of the fall in its dollar bond spreads happened in 2012-14... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary MPC’s deposit facility tweaks may do less than billed The decision by the Hungarian MPC to limit the use of its three-month deposit facility has been signalled as an effort to loosen monetary conditions, but recent experience suggests that it’s unlikely... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update United Russia’s election victory reinforces Putin’s grip on power The sweeping victory for United Russia in Sunday’s parliamentary vote reinforces the view that President Putin’s grip on power hasn’t been shaken by two years of recession. The direction of policy is... 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hawkish Russian MPC still likely to cut The surprisingly hawkish comments by the Russian central bank Governor at this afternoon’s post-MPC meeting press-conference mean that policy easing is likely to be more gradual than we previously... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation expectations aren’t a barrier to rate cuts in Russia Russia’s Central Bank has put increasing emphasis on the importance of inflation expectations in making monetary policy decisions, but it seems that these tend to be a lagging, rather than a leading... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukrainian markets come under pressure once again It’s been a very calm month for financial markets in most of Emerging Europe. One exception, however, is Ukraine where renewed tensions with Russia have caused the currency to weaken and dollar bond... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM food inflation to edge down, but it won’t collapse We expect food inflation in large parts of the EM world to ease in the coming months, which will provide some relief to policymakers in a number of high inflation economies, including Russia, Colombia... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rate cuts in Hungary could come back onto the cards The statement accompanying the Hungarian MPC’s meeting earlier today, at which the policy rate was left on hold at 0.90%, gave no sign that monetary easing is on the Council’s agenda. But we think... 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish MPC cuts rates, looks through dire inflation outlook The decision by the Turkish MPC to cut its overnight lending rate by a further 25bp, to 8.5%, provides further evidence that the Council is paying scant regard to its inflation target and more... 23rd August 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q2 GDP figures likely to show pick-up in Central Europe Preliminary Q2 GDP figures for Emerging Europe due later this week are likely to show an encouraging uptick in growth in Central Europe. Meanwhile, output in the region’s largest economy, Russia... 9th August 2016 · 1 min read
