Global Economics Update What if energy prices keep rising? While ongoing supply shortages have led us to revise up our forecasts for crude oil and wholesale gas prices, we still expect significant falls this year which would reduce headline inflation in major... 20th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Update Energy prices to fall, but not by as much Oil prices have risen sharply since the start of 2022 and natural gas and coal prices have remained high. We continue to expect energy prices to fall this year, but the latest developments on supply... 19th January 2022 · 3 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Jan.) OPEC continued to raise output by less than its target in December. However, the group is still steadily raising output, which is a key reason why we see the market moving into a surplus this year. 18th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly A good start to a bad year for commodity prices Most commodity prices increased this week, with coal prices leading the pack on the back of Indonesia’s ban on coal exports this month. That said, we don’t see commodity prices rising for much longer... 14th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update Prices to come off the boil in 2022 After a stellar run in 2020-21, we expect the prices of most commodities to ease back this year as economic activity slows, notably in China, and supply bottlenecks start to ease. Drop-In: Neil... 13th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Industrial Metals Update Slower growth in China to drag on prices in 2022 While high power prices and low stocks will support prices in the near term, we think that prices will pull back in the second half of 2022 as Chinese economic activity slows further and supply... 13th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks slumped last week, reflecting a partial recovery in demand. However, we think demand will remain under pressure as COVID-19 cases rise in the US and as economic growth slows. 12th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Energy prices to fall from 2021’s highs We see energy prices broadly falling this year as slower global economic growth should cool demand growth, but low stocks of many fuels mean prices will remain historically high and volatile for some... 11th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Commodities Chart Pack Omicron risks receding; energy still in short supply Two themes have dominated commodity markets at the turn of the year: the ongoing shortage of energy commodities and the global rise in cases of COVID-19. On the former, we think that shortages will... 7th January 2022 · 12 mins read
Commodities Weekly Demand fears giving way to supply concerns The experience of South Africa with the Omicron variant seems to have allayed investors’ fears over commodity demand. Indeed, the net long position held by investors in the oil futures market has... 7th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude oil stocks fell, but this reflected solid demand from refineries. Implied product demand – particularly for gasoline – slumped, suggesting that the public were cautious about travel... 5th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update China PMIs show demand stabilising, not reigniting The December PMI data for China point to a healthy pick-up in commodity demand. But this only partially reverses the declines from earlier in 2021, and the big picture remains that commodity demand in... 4th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Surge in gas prices will keep inflation higher This year’s surge in natural gas prices means that HICP inflation may be up to one percentage point higher next year than it would otherwise have been. However, aggregate energy inflation is still... 22nd December 2021 · 4 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude oil stocks fell sharply last week for the fourth week in a row. That was despite demand for oil products dropping back in line with the seasonal average. Early indicators suggest... 22nd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Nov.) Global steel production contracted in y/y terms in November, mainly owing to depressed output in China. Although China’s power rationing came to an end last month, there are no signs of an upturn in... 22nd December 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Update European natural gas prices surging on supply fears We always expected European natural gas prices to remain high over the winter because of low stocks, but heightened uncertainty about supply from Russia has caused prices to skyrocket again. Assuming... 21st December 2021 · 4 mins read
