Energy Update US natural gas prices set to recover Persistently low prices mean that we have revised down our end-2015 and end-2016 forecasts for the price of US natural gas. However, we still expect prices to rise substantially over the next few... 7th September 2015 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa’s much-touted “rise” stalls in 2015 A combination of low commodity prices and domestic weaknesses will drag growth in Sub-Saharan Africa down to around 3.3% this year, a very grim figure for a region often touted as the “next China”. 7th September 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Better news from China to outweigh first Fed hike The prices of key industrial commodities, notably oil, have been relatively calm in the last few days, helped by the holidays that closed China’s equity markets. Nonetheless, the robust US employment... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Some cautionary thoughts on June’s GDP The widely talked about 0.5% m/m gain in June’s GDP doesn’t convince us that the economy is on the path to recovery. Close examination of the data reveals that nearly half of this growth was due to... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Safe-haven demand drives gold and platinum higher The performance of the major precious metals diverged sharply in August, with gold and platinum outperforming their sister metals, silver and palladium. A further slump in Chinese equities and... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack China in the driving seat August proved to be another tough month for energy commodities with oil and coal prices slumping on worries about demand, prompted by the drop in the Chinese equity market. However, a further round of... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Chart Pack Prices regain some lost ground After falling steadily throughout August, in large part associated with a plunge in Chinese equities, the prices of most industrial metals have rallied in the last week. That said, the S&P GSCI... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Fragile euro-zone recovery needs more ECB support Despite the better tone to the economic data coming out of the euro-zone in recent weeks, we still expect growth to slow in the second half of the year as the twin tailwinds of the lower oil price and... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
BoE Watch Market turmoil to reinforce MPC’s dovish stance Last month’s MPC minutes and Inflation Report suggested that the Committee was in less of a hurry to raise rates than many had thought. And the recent market turmoil and commodity price falls are only... 3rd September 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks rose last week due to a combination of lower refinery inputs and higher imports, which was only partially offset by lower production 2nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update China’s imports of gold recover as local equities lose their appeal Mainland China’s gold imports from Hong Kong and Switzerland recovered in July after a weak June. We expect total imports by China and India to pick up in the second half of the year as low prices and... 2nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Market panic on China uncertainty surely overdone At face value the recent weakness in commodity prices, culminating in August’s slump, is consistent with a global recession almost as severe as that in 2008-09. Investor sentiment towards the sector... 2nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Sentiment sinks further Commodity prices continue to ebb and flow at the whim of movements in Chinese equity prices and concerns about a “hard landing” for the economy. Although agricultural prices don’t have the same level... 2nd September 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Gold and silver to end the year on the up The price of gold is vulnerable to one last dip if, as we anticipate, the Fed presses ahead with a first hike in US interest rates soon. We have reflected this risk in our end-Q3 forecast of $1,050... 1st September 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Focus may soon return to the Fed The relief rally in Chinese equities prompted by additional policy stimulus has turned global sentiment around, but a sustained recovery in commodity prices will probably require hard evidence that... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update A look at China’s growing corn problem Chinese import demand has been a key factorshaping agricultural commodity prices over thepast decade or more. Recently the NationalDevelopment and Reform Commission (NDRC)and the Ministry of... 28th August 2015 · 1 min read
