Commodities Update El Niño to keep rice prices on the boil With El Niño threatening to reduce rice harvests in South-east Asia and the world stocks-to-consumption ratio expected to hit the lowest level since 2006, we think rice prices will move higher. 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update How could a La Niña next year affect agriculturals? With the Australian Bureau of Meteorology indicating that the current El Niño could see a marked decline during the first quarter of next year, there is a significant risk that La Niña could develop... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update US gas market vulnerable to a correction if cold weather hits High stocks and forecasts of a mild winter have driven down US natural gas prices recently, but given slowing production growth, rising demand and the unpredictability of the weather, we think that... 30th October 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Falling mine supply to boost zinc prices in 2016 Scheduled closure of some large depleted mines coupled with producer cutbacks in response to low prevailing prices will lead to a relative shortage of zinc concentrates and will curb the recent... 29th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Price of palm oil to rise as El Niño hits output With the possibility of this year’s strong El Niño tightening supplies in the months ahead, we now think that the price of palm oil is likely to rise as we move into next year. 28th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US interest rates just one factor driving commodity prices The conventional wisdom is that the outlook for US interest rates will be critical in determining the prospects for commodity prices over the next few years. Indeed, some commentators seem to base... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Have fossil fuels burnt out? Fossil fuels should continue to be the world’s most important energy source for the foreseeable future. However, renewable energy production will grow rapidly and become an increasingly large part of... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update REE supply cuts set to push up prices Low rare earths (REE) prices seem to be pushing up China’s exports as previously-delayed purchases are ramped up. However, recent pledges by a number of Chinese REE producers that they would smelt... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brazil Sugar Production (1st Oct. - 16th Oct.) Data released today by Brazil’s Sugarcane Industry Association, UNICA, showed that the volume of cane harvested in Brazil’s main South-Central region fell to 36.1 million tonnes, from 40.5 million in... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Iron ore prices to fall further on strong supply The ongoing ramp up in supply and ever-lower cash costs at the major producers suggest that the iron ore market will remain well supplied. With subdued steel demand and output, we expect prices to... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Asia Cocoa Grindings (Q3) Data on Asia’s cocoa grindings revealed a 1.6% y/y decline in Q3, the fifth consecutive y/y fall. This follows data released last week which showed a decrease in overall European and North American... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Silver price to benefit from industrial metals output cuts Production cuts in the copper and zinc industries will also translate into lower silver supply over the next few years. We expect silver output to be broadly flat in 2015 and to fall by 3% in 2016... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weaker dollar helps to lift prices The US Federal Reserve’s decision not to raise interest rates in September has seen the dollar weaken recently. As a result, the strengthening of a number of currencies against the greenback... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Across-the-board strength in China’s metals imports The latest data on China’s metals imports suggest that recent fiscal and monetary stimulus, particularly infrastructure spending, are starting to feed through to stronger commodity demand. 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s agricultural import growth may be close to peaking The detailed Chinese import data, released earlier today, show that in y/y terms, demand remains strong. But given the surge in imports of a number of commodities recently, rapid growth may not be... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update China’s PGMs import data show some areas of strength The latest data on China’s imports of platinum group metals (PGMs) are consistent with early signs of stronger vehicle production. However, platinum jewellery demand appears to have moderated. 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
