Commodities Update Ample supplies to keep corn prices under pressure While the US EPA’s finalised renewable fuel standard should boost demand for US corn next year, we think ample global supplies will continue to weigh on the price in the near term. 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Glimmers of hope on the demand side There are many factors behind the current weakness of commodity prices, including the overhang of supply from the previous boom, the strength of the US dollar, and poor investor sentiment. But there... 1st December 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Stronger economic growth to support oil demand A pick up in global growth over the next few years, especially in major oil consuming countries, should help demand for oil to remain strong rather than tail off. This in turn should support oil... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update More supply cuts, but are they enough? China’s metal refiners have been announcing output cuts in 2016. Although Chinese producers have a poor record on curtailing production, we think a combination of reduced raw material supply and... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Five factors that could shape grain & soybean prices in 2016 2015 has seen the prices of corn, wheat and soybeans fall sharply, dragged lower by a combination of large harvests, rising global inventories and weak currencies in a number of key producing and... 30th November 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update How low could iron ore prices fall? Iron ore prices have weakened sharply since September and have recently fallen below $45 per tonne, weighed down by slower demand growth and excessive supply. Given these weak market conditions, we... 27th November 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Deteriorating supply prospects should lift nickel prices The collapse in the nickel price this year is hard to justify based on fundamentals alone. Ultimately, we expect further constraints on supply, amid steady growth in demand, to boost prices in 2016. 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Oil price recovery should limit further falls in crop prices The recent weakness of oil prices has weighed on the prices of major agricultural commodities, since oil is an important component of crop production costs and oil prices affect demand for agriculture... 26th November 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China’s REE trade data show demand still rising strongly China’s rare earth (REE) trade data show that exports were up 104% in the first ten months of 2015 compared to the same period a year earlier as the removal of export quotas and tariffs continued to... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Any recovery in alumina prices is likely to be limited Alumina prices are strongly influenced by aluminium prices, as demand for aluminium constitutes the bulk of demand for alumina. Since we expect aluminium prices to recover only slowly, alumina prices... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Steel prices to recover but not until next year US and Chinese steel prices have continued to fall due to overcapacity and strong exports from China. However, the US government has begun to impose anti-dumping duties and Chinese output should fall... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Energy commodities all fall foul of oversupply Whilst the current oversupply in the oil market has received the most media attention, excess production, despite the recent price falls, is a common theme across all energy commodities. In addition... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Brazil Sugar Production (1st Nov. – 16th Nov.) Figures released today by Brazil’s Sugarcane Industry Association, UNICA, show that 25.6 million tonnes of cane were harvested in the first half of November in the main South-Central cane-growing... 24th November 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Are we only part way through the downswing of a super-cycle? The recent slump in industrial commodity prices can largely be attributed to ample supply built up during the previous boom colliding with a sharp slowdown in demand. As such, it can be seen as the... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update China’s PGMs imports weaken China’s imports of platinum group metals (PGMs) weakened in October but car production and the gold/platinum price ratio suggest that PGMs demand could soon improve. 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Four key charts on the commodities “rout” (and the BDI) This Update aims to provide some perspective on the recent slides in oil and copper prices and the new record lows for the Baltic Dry Index of global shipping costs. It includes a more positive view... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
